Analysis
Where our forecast rests on less evidence
Not every race has the same amount of polling behind it. Georgia's and Nebraska's Senate races rest on a single poll each, Alaska on six, while Texas and Michigan have twelve.
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21CEE / NEWS & ANALYSIS
News & Analysis
Election reporting, analysis, forecasts and clearly labeled opinion, with sources and dates attached.
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Analysis
Seven Senate races before the night begins
Three of the seven races we are watching are close.
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Analysis
The Senate map in our final projection
Our final projection has Democrats winning 20 of the 35 Senate races on the ballot, which would leave the chamber at 52 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 2 independents who caucus with Democrats.
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Analysis
The Senate battlegrounds in our final projection
Eight Senate races are within four points in our final projection, and the Democrat is ahead in seven of them. Iowa is the closest at a lead of 0.16 points, followed by Alaska, Maine, Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Michigan.
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Analysis
When polls close today in the states we track
Polls close first in Georgia, South Carolina and most of Florida at 7 p.m.
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Analysis
Key races when polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern and later
Nevada's polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern, California, Oregon and Washington at 11, and most of Alaska at midnight. Nevada's governor race is Democratic by 0.06 points and Alaska's Senate race by 0.90.
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Analysis
Key races when polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern
At 9 p.m. Eastern, polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York and Wisconsin. Iowa's Senate race is the closest in our forecast, with a Democratic lead of 0.16 points.
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Analysis
Key races when polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern
Polls close at 8 p.m.
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Analysis
Key races when polls close at 7 and 7:30 p.m. Eastern
Polls close at 7 p.m. Eastern in Georgia, South Carolina and most of Florida, and at 7:30 in North Carolina and Ohio. Georgia's governor race leans Republican by 1.15 points, while Ohio's Senate race tilts Democratic by 2.54.
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Analysis
How to read the 21CEE forecast on Election Day
A margin like D+2 means the Democrat is projected ahead by 2 points, and R+2 means the Republican is. Margins are Democratic minus Republican, in percentage points.
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Analysis
House bellwethers to watch tonight
Our final projection has Democrats winning 236 House seats and Republicans 199.
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Analysis
Governors: our final map
Our final projection has Democrats holding 27 governorships and Republicans 23. The closest races are in Nevada, Oregon, Georgia and Kansas.
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Analysis
Our final prediction: Democrats projected to win the House, the Senate and most governorships
21CEE's final projection, locked Nov. 1, has Democrats winning 236 House seats to Republicans' 199, and 52 Senate seats to 46, with 2 independents who caucus with Democrats.
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Analysis
The final call, one more time
Here is what we locked on Nov. 1, before any votes are counted: House Democrats 236, Republicans 199; Senate Democrats 52, Republicans 46, independents 2; governors Democrats 27, Republicans 23.
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Analysis
Election Day: a quick guide to voting today
Before you go: look up your polling place on your state or county election website, check your state's ID rule, and confirm what time polls close where you live. Hours differ by state and sometimes by county.
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Analysis
The closest calls in our final forecast
Pennsylvania's 10th House district and Oregon's governor race are even in our final projection. Nevada's governor race and Iowa's Senate race are within 0.2 points.
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Analysis
Texas Senate: Talarico projected 1.90 points ahead of Paxton
Democrat James Talarico is projected to lead Republican Ken Paxton by 1.90 points, and Inside Elections rates the race Tilt Democratic. It is a seat Republicans hold.
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Analysis
Maine Senate: Troy Jackson projected ahead of Susan Collins by 1.66 points
Maine is a seat Republicans hold, and the final forecast has it flipping. Democrat Troy Jackson is projected to beat Republican Susan Collins by 1.66 points, and Inside Elections rates the race a Toss Up.
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Analysis
Kansas: a Senate toss-up and a governor's race that leans Republican
Kansas sends two races to the final forecast that point in different directions.
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Analysis
Iowa Senate: the closest race on our board, by less than a fifth of a point
Iowa's U.S. Senate race is the closest Senate race in our final forecast. Democrat Josh Turek is projected to lead Republican Ashley Hinson by 0.16 points, a gap that rounds to almost nothing.
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Analysis
Election eve: what our final forecast is, and what it is not
21CEE's final forecast was issued Sunday evening, November 1, and it will not change.
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Analysis
Alaska Senate: Mary Peltola projected 0.90 points ahead, on six polls
Alaska's Senate race is the second-closest in the final forecast. Democrat Mary Peltola is projected to lead Republican Dan Sullivan by 0.90 points. Inside Elections rates it a Toss Up, and the seat is held by Republicans.
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Analysis
Seven House seats the corrected polls move to Democrats
When we re-ran the final forecast with the district polls we had missed, seven House seats moved to Democrats. Each rests on one poll.
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Forecast
Final forecast, corrected: Democrats at 236 House seats, Republicans at 199
Our corrected final forecast has Democrats winning 236 House seats and Republicans 199. Seven districts move to Democrats after two House inputs were fixed.
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Analysis
The economy leads voters’ 2026 issue priorities
In CBS News/YouGov’s October 21–23 survey, 83% of likely voters rated the economy very important to their House vote, followed by inflation at 78%, health care at 73% and immigration at 68%.
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Analysis
Michigan mail returns rose, but requests grew faster
At Michigan’s one-week reporting checkpoint,2026mailreturns were4.5%above2022, while requests were13.5%higher. Returned/requested was54.6%, versus59.3%.
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Analysis
North Carolina Senate: 13 points before the follow-up, 11 after
The same Elon survey put Roy Cooper ahead of Michael Whatley by13points initially and11after undecided voters were asked to choose. North Carolina U.S. Senate,2026.
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Analysis
What earlier House polling misses would mean for the 2026 margin
How the final national House polling-average misses of2018,2020,2022 and2024 would shift a dated2026 baseline. Four scenarios, not forecasts.
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Forecast
Daily Brief: Kansas is nearly even as the Senate projection moves to 52 Democratic picks
Kansas remains nearly even as the evening Senate projection moves from 51 to 52 Democratic picks. House and governor totals are unchanged.
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Analysis
The polls look close. The early vote looks busy. What should we believe?
Texas, Kansas, Michigan and Maine are testing pollsters’ turnout assumptions. A look at the original polls, matched early-vote data and the lessons of 2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024.
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Analysis
Most major-party House backers ruled out the other party
In CBS News/YouGov’s October 21–23 poll, 85% of likely voters backing a Democratic House candidate and 76% backing a Republican ruled out considering the other party.
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Analysis
North Carolina added more than a million reported early and absentee ballots in a week
North Carolina reported 1,040,590 more early and absentee ballots between activity cutoffs October 19 and October 26, 2026.
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Forecast
Daily Brief: Wisconsin widens, Arizona narrows in the governor projections
Wisconsin’s projected Democratic governor margin widened by 2 points; Arizona’s narrowed by 3.5. Both favored candidates are unchanged.
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Analysis
Early and mail voting grew in 2022 even as overall turnout slipped
Early and mail voting became more common between the last two midterms. In 2022, 49.8% of reported voters used one or both methods, up from 39.8% in 2018. That is a 10.0-percentage-point increase, bringing the share to nearly half of voters.
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Analysis
Voters express more confidence in ballot access than protection from hacking
Pew’s registered-voter confidence estimates were 80% for ballot access, 68% for noncitizen voting checks and 52% for protection from hacking.
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Forecast
Maine Senate: a tied poll and a narrow projected edge
Fox’s October 16–20 likely-voter poll had a 49%–49% tie. 21CEE’s October 28 point projection favors Troy Jackson by 1.43 points.
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Analysis
Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler (New York’s 17th District): campaign cash fell $894,023
The main campaign committee for Republican U.S. Rep. Mike Lawler (New York’s 17th District) spent $1.21 million from October 1 through 14 while reporting $316,421 in receipts. It started the period with $2.85 million in cash and finished with $1.96 million. That was a decline of $894,023, or 31.33%, in two weeks, according to its October 22 pre-general filing with the Federal Election Commission.
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Forecast
Daily Brief: a 230–205 House edge, with control 13 seats away
A 25-seat House gap leaves Republicans a 13-seat path to a majority if those Democratic picks change. Kansas and Iowa show how narrow individual Senate projections remain.
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Analysis
Georgia Senate: a $16.1 million operating-spending gap in two weeks
Ossoff’s main Senate campaign committee reported $16,507,376.01 in operating expenditures from October 1 through October 14. Collins’s reported $451,146.80 over the same two weeks, a $16,056,229.21 difference. Both figures come from the committees’ pre-general reports, filed with the FEC on October 22.
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Analysis
2024 turnout exceeded 2012 and 2016, and remained below 2020
National turnout in 2024 was 64.30% of the estimated voting-eligible population, compared with 60.10% in 2016 and 58.60% in 2012. That puts 2024 at +4.20 percentage points versus 2016 and +5.70 points versus 2012. All three observations come from the University of Florida Election Lab's national presidential-election series, version 1.4, revised March 2, 2026.
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Analysis
What the last two presidential elections and midterms tell us about turnout
National voting-eligible-population turnout fell by 2.08 percentage points from 2020 to 2024 and by 3.93 points from 2018 to 2022. These are two separate comparisons, not a 2026 turnout forecast.
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