Analysis
Key races when polls close at 9 p.m. Eastern
At 9 p.m. Eastern, polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York and Wisconsin. Iowa's Senate race is the closest in our forecast, with a Democratic lead of 0.16 points.
Evidence as of
At 9 p.m. Eastern, polls close in Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York and Wisconsin. Iowa's Senate race is the closest in our forecast, with a Democratic lead of 0.16 points. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Iowa Senate: D+0.16; 11 polls, latest Oct. 29; Nebraska Senate: R+3.00; 1 poll, latest Oct. 5; Minnesota Senate: D+5.61; 7 polls, latest Oct. 28; Wisconsin governor: D+4.33; 3 polls, latest Oct. 23; Iowa governor: D+8.30; 9 polls, latest Oct. 29; Arizona governor: D+12.00; 3 polls, latest Oct. 28; CO-05 House: R+1.27; no public polls in our set; NY-17 House: D+2.00; 1 poll, latest Sept. 29
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Iowa Senate | D+0.16; 11 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Nebraska Senate | R+3.00; 1 poll, latest Oct. 5 |
| Minnesota Senate | D+5.61; 7 polls, latest Oct. 28 |
| Wisconsin governor | D+4.33; 3 polls, latest Oct. 23 |
| Iowa governor | D+8.30; 9 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Arizona governor | D+12.00; 3 polls, latest Oct. 28 |
| CO-05 House | R+1.27; no public polls in our set |
| NY-17 House | D+2.00; 1 poll, latest Sept. 29 |
Nebraska's Senate race tilts Republican by 3.00 points over an independent and rests on one poll. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
These are projections, not counted votes. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.