Analysis
Iowa Senate: the closest race on our board, by less than a fifth of a point
Iowa's U.S. Senate race is the closest Senate race in our final forecast. Democrat Josh Turek is projected to lead Republican Ashley Hinson by 0.16 points, a gap that rounds to almost nothing.
Evidence as of
Iowa's U.S. Senate race is the closest Senate race in our final forecast. Democrat Josh Turek is projected to lead Republican Ashley Hinson by 0.16 points, a gap that rounds to almost nothing. Inside Elections rates it a Toss Up, and Iowa is a seat Republicans currently hold. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
The projection draws on 11 selected polls, the latest with interviews ending October 29, and seven of the 11 are original verified releases, a stronger evidence base than in several neighboring races. That does not make the margin more certain: a lead this small is a coin flip in everything but name, and we do not publish a win probability. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
If Iowa goes to Hinson, our 52 to 46 Senate (with 2 independents) loses one Democratic seat, which is why this race is worth watching on election night. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
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Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.