Analysis
Kansas: a Senate toss-up and a governor's race that leans Republican
Kansas sends two races to the final forecast that point in different directions.
Evidence as of
Kansas sends two races to the final forecast that point in different directions. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Adam Hamilton is projected to edge Republican Roger Marshall by 2.29 points, which would flip a seat Republicans hold. Inside Elections rates it a Toss Up. In the governor's race, Republican Ty Masterson is projected ahead of Democrat Cindy Holscher by 3.42 points, and Inside Elections rates it Tilt Republican. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
U.S. Senate: Hamilton (D) +2.29 over Marshall (R); 7 polls, latest Oct 29; Toss Up; Governor: Masterson (R) +3.42 over Holscher (D); 8 polls, latest Oct 29; Tilt R
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| U.S. Senate | Hamilton (D) +2.29 over Marshall (R); 7 polls, latest Oct 29; Toss Up |
| Governor | Masterson (R) +3.42 over Holscher (D); 8 polls, latest Oct 29; Tilt R |
The Senate number rests on seven selected polls, the latest with interviews ending October 29. None of the seven is an original verified release in our data, so it leans on retained provider listings more than most races do. The governor's projection uses eight polls, the latest ending October 29, two of them original verified releases. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
A 2.29-point margin is an estimate, not a probability. With that few polls, the Senate race is close enough that either result would sit within the normal range of polling error. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.