Analysis
Our final prediction: Democrats projected to win the House, the Senate and most governorships
21CEE's final projection, locked Nov. 1, has Democrats winning 236 House seats to Republicans' 199, and 52 Senate seats to 46, with 2 independents who caucus with Democrats.
Evidence as of
21CEE's final projection, locked Nov. 1, has Democrats winning 236 House seats to Republicans' 199, and 52 Senate seats to 46, with 2 independents who caucus with Democrats. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
House: D 236, R 199; Senate: D 52, R 46, I 2; Governors: D 27, R 23
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| House | D 236, R 199 |
| Senate | D 52, R 46, I 2 |
| Governors | D 27, R 23 |
For governors, the projection has Democrats at 27 and Republicans at 23 across all 50 states. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
These are projections from selected polls and the 21CEE model, not counted votes. We do not publish a win probability. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.