Analysis
Early and mail voting grew in 2022 even as overall turnout slipped
Early and mail voting became more common between the last two midterms. In 2022, 49.8% of reported voters used one or both methods, up from 39.8% in 2018. That is a 10.0-percentage-point increase, bringing the share to nearly half of voters.
Evidence as of
Early and mail voting became more common between the last two midterms. In 2022, 49.8% of reported voters used one or both methods, up from 39.8% in 2018. That is a 10.0-percentage-point increase, bringing the share to nearly half of voters. Sources: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022, P20-586, Census Bureau Releases 2022 Congressional Election Voting Report
Overall turnout moved the other way. The Census Bureau estimated that 52.2% of voting-age citizens reported voting in 2022, compared with 53.4% in 2018, a decline of 1.2 percentage points. A bigger early-or-mail share can therefore coexist with lower total participation. Early-voting totals alone do not tell us how many people will eventually vote in 2026. Sources: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022, P20-586, Census Bureau Releases 2022 Congressional Election Voting Report
The comparison uses the same Census survey series for two completed midterm elections. The early-or-mail figures describe how reported voters cast ballots; the turnout figures describe how much of the citizen voting-age population reported voting. They answer different questions, and neither measures which candidates people supported. The figures come from self- or proxy-reported answers in the Current Population Survey, subject to sampling and nonsampling error. Data and research: U.S. Census Bureau, Jacob Fabina and Michael Martin. Analysis: 21CEE. Sources: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022, P20-586, Census Bureau Releases 2022 Congressional Election Voting Report
Explore the data: Historical midterm comparison and original Census report
Signed changes use the stated denominator and units; unmatched observations have no change calculation.
| Measure | Baseline | Current | Signed change | Basis and limits |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Early or mail share of reported voters, 2018 to 2022 | 39.8 | 49.8 | +10.00 pp | Same national CPS reported-voter universe in completed midterms; within-metric historical comparison.; Survey estimate, self/proxy reporting, rounded percentages; mail can include Election Day, so not exclusively before-election voting. |
| Reported turnout among voting-age citizens, 2018 to 2022 | 53.4 | 52.2 | -1.20 pp | Same national civilian noninstitutionalized citizen population age18+ in completed midterms; within-metric comparison.; Survey estimate, not administrative vote totals or UF VEP denominator. No inference that changing voting methods caused turnout change or predicts2026. |
Sources: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022, P20-586, Census Bureau Releases 2022 Congressional Election Voting Report
Sources and contributors
Data and research: U.S. Census Bureau, Jacob Fabina and Michael Martin. Analysis and graphic: 21CEE. Sources: Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022, P20-586, Census Bureau Releases 2022 Congressional Election Voting Report
Sources & data
- Voting and Registration in the Election of November 2022, P20-586 · U.S. Census Bureau · Jacob Fabina and Michael Martin · (publication time unavailable)
- Census Bureau Releases 2022 Congressional Election Voting Report · U.S. Census Bureau · (publication time unavailable)
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.