Analysis
Election eve: what our final forecast is, and what it is not
21CEE's final forecast was issued Sunday evening, November 1, and it will not change.
Evidence as of
21CEE's final forecast was issued Sunday evening, November 1, and it will not change. It has Democrats winning 236 House seats and Republicans 199, a Senate of 52 Democrats, 46 Republicans and 2 independents who caucus with Democrats, and 27 Democratic and 23 Republican governorships. It replaces the House number we published earlier that day (229 to 206) after we found two House inputs had stopped updating on October 29. The correction is explained on the release page. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
House: D 236 / R 199 (earlier Nov 1 version: D 229 / R 206); Senate: D 52 / R 46 / I 2 (both independents caucus with D); Governors: D 27 / R 23; Closest Senate margins (Democratic lead, points): Iowa 0.16, Alaska 0.90, Maine 1.66, Texas 1.90, Kansas 2.29, Ohio 2.54
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| House | D 236 / R 199 (earlier Nov 1 version: D 229 / R 206) |
| Senate | D 52 / R 46 / I 2 (both independents caucus with D) |
| Governors | D 27 / R 23 |
| Closest Senate margins (Democratic lead, points) | Iowa 0.16, Alaska 0.90, Maine 1.66, Texas 1.90, Kansas 2.29, Ohio 2.54 |
What it is: a central projection of each race's vote margin, with a projected winner in every contest, built from the polls and ratings 21CEE had verified through Sunday evening. Our own rules lock this release as the last published forecast. Our model runs on Monday and Tuesday stay private. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
What it is not: a probability. Our margins are estimates and we do not publish calibrated win probabilities. It is not an election-night call, and it will not be updated for polls released after its cutoff. Some sources were not refreshed completely, and our poll discovery is incomplete. Many of the closest races rest on only a handful of polls, so a result a point or two away from our margin is not a miss of the kind that should surprise anyone. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.