Analysis
The Senate battlegrounds in our final projection
Eight Senate races are within four points in our final projection, and the Democrat is ahead in seven of them. Iowa is the closest at a lead of 0.16 points, followed by Alaska, Maine, Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Michigan.
Evidence as of
Eight Senate races are within four points in our final projection, and the Democrat is ahead in seven of them. Iowa is the closest at a lead of 0.16 points, followed by Alaska, Maine, Texas, Ohio, Kansas and Michigan. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Iowa Senate: D+0.16; 11 polls, latest Oct. 29; Alaska Senate: D+0.90; 6 polls, latest Oct. 29; Maine Senate: D+1.66; 11 polls, latest Oct. 29; Texas Senate: D+1.90; 12 polls, latest Oct. 29; Kansas Senate: D+2.29; 7 polls, latest Oct. 29; Ohio Senate: D+2.54; 11 polls, latest Oct. 30; Nebraska Senate: R+3.00; 1 poll, latest Oct. 5; Michigan Senate: D+3.81; 12 polls, latest Oct. 29; Minnesota Senate: D+5.61; 7 polls, latest Oct. 28; New Hampshire Senate: D+6.11; 9 polls, latest Oct. 23; Georgia Senate: D+8.00; 1 poll, latest Oct. 9; North Carolina Senate: D+11.32; 9 polls, latest Oct. 29
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Iowa Senate | D+0.16; 11 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Alaska Senate | D+0.90; 6 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Maine Senate | D+1.66; 11 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Texas Senate | D+1.90; 12 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Kansas Senate | D+2.29; 7 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Ohio Senate | D+2.54; 11 polls, latest Oct. 30 |
| Nebraska Senate | R+3.00; 1 poll, latest Oct. 5 |
| Michigan Senate | D+3.81; 12 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Minnesota Senate | D+5.61; 7 polls, latest Oct. 28 |
| New Hampshire Senate | D+6.11; 9 polls, latest Oct. 23 |
| Georgia Senate | D+8.00; 1 poll, latest Oct. 9 |
| North Carolina Senate | D+11.32; 9 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
Nebraska is the one close race that tilts Republican, by 3.00 points over an independent, and it rests on a single poll. Minnesota, New Hampshire, Georgia and North Carolina are wider in our projection. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
These are projections, not counted votes. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.