Analysis
What the last two presidential elections and midterms tell us about turnout
National voting-eligible-population turnout fell by 2.08 percentage points from 2020 to 2024 and by 3.93 points from 2018 to 2022. These are two separate comparisons, not a 2026 turnout forecast.
Evidence as of
National turnout was lower in 2024 than in 2020. The University of Florida Election Lab's national series puts participation at 64.30% of the estimated voting-eligible population in 2024 and 66.38% in 2020, a decline of 2.08 percentage points. Both figures come from version 1.4, revised March 2, 2026. They describe participation in completed presidential elections. Sources: National VEP Turnout Rates, 1789-Present (v1.4), National VEP turnout rates v1.4 CSV
Midterms need their own comparison. The same series reports 50.05% in 2018 and 46.12% in 2022, down 3.93 percentage points across two midterms. We keep that pair separate from the presidential elections. These national rates do not identify which age, racial or party groups changed participation, or why. Sources: National VEP turnout rates v1.4 CSV, National VEP turnout rates v1.4 documentation
This series describes completed elections, so it cannot tell us who is voting early in 2026 or how anyone will vote. A comparison with current polls or early ballots needs its own source, dates, denominator and sample definition. The historical rates provide a baseline, not a turnout prediction for the next election. Sources: National VEP turnout rates v1.4 CSV, National VEP turnout rates v1.4 documentation
Same national voting-eligible-population series, version1.4. Compare presidential elections with presidential elections and midterms with midterms. Rates are percentages; differences are percentage points. No group or causal inference is supported.
| Election type | Earlier year | Earlier VEP turnout | Later year | Later VEP turnout | Change in percentage points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Presidential | 2020 | 66.38% | 2024 | 64.30% | −2.08 pp |
| Midterm | 2018 | 50.05% | 2022 | 46.12% | −3.93 pp |
Sources: National VEP turnout rates v1.4 CSV, National VEP turnout rates v1.4 documentation
Explore the data: 21CEE turnout source register
Explore the data: 21CEE project credits
Sources & data
- National VEP Turnout Rates, 1789-Present (v1.4) · University of Florida Election Lab · Michael McDonald · (publication time unavailable)
- National VEP turnout rates v1.4 CSV · University of Florida Election Lab · Michael McDonald · (publication time unavailable)
- National VEP turnout rates v1.4 documentation · University of Florida Election Lab · Michael McDonald · (publication time unavailable)
Authorship & review
This article includes AI-generated content. Review used the automated checks described below. Organization-owned 21CEE analysis prepared with AI assistance. The source version, denominator and arithmetic were checked against the original UF Election Lab data and documentation. No named human authorship or human editorial review is claimed.
Automated evidence review recorded by 21cee-editorial-contract version 1. Source checks, date bounds and citation coverage are recorded, and this article is bound to a content hash. No named human editorial review is claimed; these checks do not guarantee factual accuracy.
Reviewed content SHA-256: 38dfe71c5399fcb74598d3c6433cac091fbf8ffbc2a079d06827afe839bbc470
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.