Daily Brief: Wisconsin widens, Arizona narrows in the governor projections

21CEE’s projected Democratic lead in Wisconsin’s governor race widened from 3 to 5 percentage points between the October 27 and October 28 evening reports. Democratic candidate David Crowley remains the model’s pick over Republican candidate Tom Tiffany. The projected margin increased by 2 points; the favored candidate did not change. Sources: 21CEE issued Daily Report, 2026-10-28

Arizona moved in the other direction. In the governor’s race between Democratic candidate Katie Hobbs and Republican candidate Andy Biggs, the projected Democratic lead fell from 18.5 to 15 points, a 3.5-point reduction. Hobbs remains the model’s pick. The release attributes both states’ adjustments to source or measurement updates; they do not track changes in the same respondents. Sources: 21CEE issued Daily Report, 2026-10-28

The chamber totals held at 230 Democratic and 205 Republican House seats, with the Senate at 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans and two independents, including seats not contested this year. This Brief uses the October 28 report generated at 6:13 p.m. Eastern, with a 6:12 p.m. source cutoff. The linked issued report preserves original input dates, source coverage and limitations. Data, analysis and graphic: 21CEE. Sources: 21CEE issued Daily Report, 2026-10-28

Explore the data: Read the exact October 28 issued report and source coverage

Source note: Calculation valid; source refresh incomplete. This report uses retained verified observations with original dates; unverified new releases are excluded. Detailed input coverage remains in the issued report. Sources: 21CEE issued Daily Report, 2026-10-28