Analysis
North Carolina Senate: 13 points before the follow-up, 11 after
The same Elon survey put Roy Cooper ahead of Michael Whatley by13points initially and11after undecided voters were asked to choose. North Carolina U.S. Senate,2026.
Evidence as of
Democrat Roy Cooper and Republican Michael Whatley are running for North Carolina’s U.S. Senate seat. Elon University Poll’s September 29–October 8 survey put Cooper at 52% and Whatley at 39% among likely voters. Another 6% were undecided, and 3% favored another candidate. That gave Cooper a 13-point lead in the initial ballot question. Sources: Final Elon University Poll before Election Day: Cooper has double-digit lead over Whatley in NC US Senate race, North Carolina2026 general candidate list, printedOctober13 edition
When undecided respondents were pressed to choose, Cooper reached 54% and Whatley 43%, leaving an 11-point gap. Both candidates gained support in that follow-up, with Whatley gaining four points and Cooper two. Those are two question stages in the same poll, so the narrower lead does not show voters changing their minds between surveys. Sources: Final Elon University Poll before Election Day: Cooper has double-digit lead over Whatley in NC US Senate race
Likely voters in the same September29–October8,2026 survey. Question treatment differs; this is not movement between polls.
| Ballot stage | Roy Cooper, Democrat | Michael Whatley, Republican | Democratic lead |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial question | 52% | 39% | 13points |
| After undecided follow-up | 54% | 43% | 11points |
Source note: Elon published the release October20. YouGov interviewed1,038North Carolina adults and matched them to a final800-adult dataset; likely-voter subgroup size is not supplied. The published likely-voter margin is±4.9percentage points for estimates, not automatically for either lead. Candidate identities come from the NCSBE general-election list, printedOctober13. Original release:University Communications, staff. Data:Elon University Poll; fieldwork:YouGov. Analysis and graphic:21CEE. Photographs:Cooper for North Carolina and Whatley for Senate. Sources: Final Elon University Poll before Election Day: Cooper has double-digit lead over Whatley in NC US Senate race, North Carolina2026 general candidate list, printedOctober13 edition
Sources & data
- Final Elon University Poll before Election Day: Cooper has double-digit lead over Whatley in NC US Senate race · Elon University Poll / Elon University · University Communications, staff · (publication time unavailable)
- North Carolina2026 general candidate list, printedOctober13 edition · North Carolina State Board of Elections · Observed (data capture; publication time unavailable)
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.