Analysis
The closest calls in our final forecast
Pennsylvania's 10th House district and Oregon's governor race are even in our final projection. Nevada's governor race and Iowa's Senate race are within 0.2 points.
Evidence as of
Pennsylvania's 10th House district and Oregon's governor race are even in our final projection. Nevada's governor race and Iowa's Senate race are within 0.2 points. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
PA-10 House: Even; 2 polls, latest Oct. 22; Oregon governor: Even; 2 polls, latest Oct. 1; Nevada governor: D+0.06; 2 polls, latest Sept. 26; Iowa Senate: D+0.16; 11 polls, latest Oct. 29; Alaska Senate: D+0.90; 6 polls, latest Oct. 29; MI-04 House: D+1.00; 1 poll, latest Sept. 16; WA-03 House: R+1.00; 1 poll, latest Sept. 27; Georgia governor: R+1.15; 4 polls, latest Oct. 17
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| PA-10 House | Even; 2 polls, latest Oct. 22 |
| Oregon governor | Even; 2 polls, latest Oct. 1 |
| Nevada governor | D+0.06; 2 polls, latest Sept. 26 |
| Iowa Senate | D+0.16; 11 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Alaska Senate | D+0.90; 6 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| MI-04 House | D+1.00; 1 poll, latest Sept. 16 |
| WA-03 House | R+1.00; 1 poll, latest Sept. 27 |
| Georgia governor | R+1.15; 4 polls, latest Oct. 17 |
Alaska's Senate race, Michigan's 4th, Washington's 3rd and Georgia's governor race follow within about 1.2 points. Any of these could go either way. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
These are projections, not counted votes. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.