Analysis
House bellwethers to watch tonight
Our final projection has Democrats winning 236 House seats and Republicans 199.
Evidence as of
Our final projection has Democrats winning 236 House seats and Republicans 199. Several of the closest seats close early: Pennsylvania's 10th is even, Florida's 22nd leans Republican by 1.27, and Michigan's 4th and Ohio's 7th tilt Democratic by about a point. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
PA-10 House: Even; 2 polls, latest Oct. 22; FL-22 House: R+1.27; 1 poll; MI-04 House: D+1.00; 1 poll, latest Sept. 16; OH-07 House: D+1.34; no public polls in our set; TX-15 House: D+1.34; 1 poll; NY-17 House: D+2.00; 1 poll, latest Sept. 29; IA-02 House: D+3.00; 1 poll, latest Oct. 14; CO-05 House: R+1.27; no public polls in our set; PA-07 House: D+5.00; 2 polls, latest Oct. 22; NC-01 House: D+8.00; 1 poll, latest Oct. 4
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| PA-10 House | Even; 2 polls, latest Oct. 22 |
| FL-22 House | R+1.27; 1 poll |
| MI-04 House | D+1.00; 1 poll, latest Sept. 16 |
| OH-07 House | D+1.34; no public polls in our set |
| TX-15 House | D+1.34; 1 poll |
| NY-17 House | D+2.00; 1 poll, latest Sept. 29 |
| IA-02 House | D+3.00; 1 poll, latest Oct. 14 |
| CO-05 House | R+1.27; no public polls in our set |
| PA-07 House | D+5.00; 2 polls, latest Oct. 22 |
| NC-01 House | D+8.00; 1 poll, latest Oct. 4 |
House seats are the thinnest part of our evidence. Many have one poll or none, so the margins here are rough. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
These are projections, not counted votes. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
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Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.