Every source.
Every credit.

HOUSE-AZ-01 — FirstStrategic

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-10-01

Interviews end

2026-10-01

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: FirstStrategic
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

HOUSE-CA-06 — Independent Leadership Council

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-01

Interviews end

2026-09-06

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Independent Leadership Council
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

HOUSE-CA-48 — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-08-27

Interviews end

2026-10-07

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

HOUSE-CO-08 — Unknown pollster (Washington Reporter report)

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-16

Interviews end

2026-09-17

Published

2026-09-23

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Originating pollster: Unknown pollster (Washington Reporter report)
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

HOUSE-FL-22 — Impact Research/HMP

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-08-24

Interviews end

2026-08-31

Published

2026-09-09

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Originating pollster: Impact Research/HMP
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

HOUSE-MI-04 — GBAO

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-13

Interviews end

2026-09-16

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: GBAO
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

HOUSE-NC-01 — GQR

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-29

Interviews end

2026-10-04

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: GQR
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

HOUSE-NE-02 — National Public Affairs

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-10-02

Interviews end

2026-10-05

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: National Public Affairs
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

HOUSE-NJ-07 — StimSight Research

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-08

Interviews end

2026-09-12

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: StimSight Research
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

HOUSE-NY-17 — Emerson/PIX11

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-27

Interviews end

2026-09-29

Published

2026-10-01

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Originating pollster: Emerson/PIX11
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

HOUSE-OH-09 — DCCC Analytics Department

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-22

Interviews end

2026-09-23

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: DCCC Analytics Department
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

HOUSE-PA-07 — Franklin & Marshall

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-09

Interviews end

2026-09-20

Published

2026-09-24

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Originating pollster: Franklin & Marshall
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: RV

HOUSE-PA-10 — Franklin & Marshall

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-09

Interviews end

2026-09-20

Published

2026-09-24

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Originating pollster: Franklin & Marshall
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: RV

HOUSE-TX-15 — Texas Southern University

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-08-18

Interviews end

2026-08-22

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Texas Southern University
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

HOUSE-TX-34 — Texas Southern University

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-08-18

Interviews end

2026-08-22

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Texas Southern University
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

HOUSE-VA-02 — Christopher Newport University/Wason Center

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-10-01

Interviews end

2026-10-10

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Christopher Newport University/Wason Center
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

HOUSE-WA-03 — DHM/OPB

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-17

Interviews end

2026-09-27

Published

2026-10-01

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Originating pollster: DHM/OPB
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-AK — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-08

Interviews end

2026-10-16

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

SENATE-IA — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-09

Interviews end

2026-10-22

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

SENATE-ME — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-08-31

Interviews end

2026-10-20

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

SENATE-NC — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-08-31

Interviews end

2026-10-20

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

SENATE-OH — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-14

Interviews end

2026-10-22

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

SENATE-TX — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-08-27

Interviews end

2026-10-19

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

SENATE-MI — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-08-31

Interviews end

2026-10-22

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

SENATE-MN — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-08-31

Interviews end

2026-10-21

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

SENATE-KS — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-08

Interviews end

2026-10-14

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

SENATE-NH — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-09

Interviews end

2026-10-20

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

SENATE-GA — Trafalgar Group

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-10-07

Interviews end

2026-10-09

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Trafalgar Group
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-NE — National Public Affairs

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-10-02

Interviews end

2026-10-05

Published

2026-10-12

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Originating pollster: National Public Affairs
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

GOVERNOR-AK — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-08

Interviews end

2026-10-18

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

GOVERNOR-AZ — Highground Public Affairs*

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-10-06

Interviews end

2026-10-08

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Highground Public Affairs*
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

GOVERNOR-FL — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-14

Interviews end

2026-10-20

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

GOVERNOR-GA — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-14

Interviews end

2026-10-17

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

GOVERNOR-IA — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-08-31

Interviews end

2026-10-19

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

GOVERNOR-KS — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-08

Interviews end

2026-10-04

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

GOVERNOR-MI — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-08-31

Interviews end

2026-10-18

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

GOVERNOR-NV — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-05

Interviews end

2026-09-26

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

GOVERNOR-OH — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-01

Interviews end

2026-10-19

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

GOVERNOR-OR — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-17

Interviews end

2026-10-01

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

GOVERNOR-TX — recorded polling anchor

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-08-27

Interviews end

2026-10-19

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Not recorded
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

GOVERNOR-WI — Marquette

Survey used as polling anchor

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-16

Interviews end

2026-09-23

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Originating pollster and voter screen are recorded only when supplied.
• Survey voter screen is not recorded; no LV, RV or adult classification is inferred.
• Original publication date is not recorded; interview dates are not used as publication dates.
• Originating pollster: Marquette
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded

GOVERNOR-IA — Emerson* primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-08-31

Interviews end

2026-09-01

Published

2026-09-03

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 750.
• Ballot/question: initial_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Methodology The Emerson College Polling Iowa survey was conducted August 31-September 1, 2026. The sample of likely voters, n=750, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.6 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web, with additional panel interviews provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized links that p
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:27:18.660306+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.429493+00:00
• What is your party registration? Native Democrat/Republican/Independent-other categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated.
• Exact unrounded native weighted counts; categorical mass ratios, not renormalized rounded percentages.
• Exact workbook percentages can differ from stored whole-percent headline; neither is new movement.
• Actual native weighted workbook counts; native Independent/other includes unspecified leaners. Same-survey two-way issue/turnout tables do not identify three-way joints.
• Originating pollster: Emerson*
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

GOVERNOR-IA — Suffolk University primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-10-01

Interviews end

2026-10-04

Published

2026-10-07

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 500.
• Sponsor: Suffolk University
• Ballot/question: with_leaners_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Publisher LV questionnaire and complete count table; printed-count weighting precision unspecified
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:26:27.925240+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.311373+00:00
• Are you currently enrolled as a Democrat, Republican, or No Party/Independent? Native categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated. Other, missing or unregistered party responses remain a separate residual group.
• Publisher-tabulated integer counts; weighted/unweighted status and hidden fractional weighting precision not identified by retained PDFs. No claim of unrounded weighted counts.
• Original publisher-linked relative PDF hrefs are retained in the HTML. Actual returned web-connector response separately contains this literal primary index URL.
• Rounded existing parent margin is preserved. Decimal count reconstruction differences are precision differences, never new movement or correction.
• Originating pollster: Suffolk University
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

GOVERNOR-IA — Emerson primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-10-05

Interviews end

2026-10-06

Published

2026-10-09

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 650.
• Sponsor: Nexstar Media
• Ballot/question: initial_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Methodology The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Iowa survey was conducted October 5-6, 2026. The overall sample of Iowa likely voters, n=650, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.8 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web. Additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized links
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:27:19.592782+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.780897+00:00
• What is your party registration? Native Democrat/Republican/Independent-other categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated.
• Exact unrounded native weighted counts; categorical mass ratios, not renormalized rounded percentages.
• Exact workbook percentages can differ from stored whole-percent headline; neither is new movement.
• Actual native weighted workbook counts; native Independent/other includes unspecified leaners. Same-survey two-way issue/turnout tables do not identify three-way joints.
• Originating pollster: Emerson
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

GOVERNOR-KS — Emerson primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-15

Interviews end

2026-09-16

Published

2026-09-18

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 750.
• Ballot/question: initial_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Methodology The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Kansas survey was conducted September 15-16, 2026. The sample of likely voters, n=750, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.6 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web . Additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sa
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:27:19.593391+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.698650+00:00
• What is your party registration? Native Democrat/Republican/Independent-other categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated.
• Exact unrounded native weighted counts; categorical mass ratios, not renormalized rounded percentages.
• Exact workbook percentages can differ from stored whole-percent headline; neither is new movement.
• Actual native weighted workbook counts; native Independent/other includes unspecified leaners. Same-survey two-way issue/turnout tables do not identify three-way joints.
• Originating pollster: Emerson
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

GOVERNOR-KS — YouGov primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-24

Interviews end

2026-10-04

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Original publication date remains unknown; interview and review dates are not publication dates.
• Recorded respondent sample: 2255.
• Ballot/question: Conditionaldid/will/would-vote; text does not state Senate-styleundecidedallocationforgovernor.
• Method: SameYouGovwave;governorcrosstabunweightedn2252.
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-09T05:03:51+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-09T05:11:29.511740+00:00
• Original 44D/47R matches stored margin -3.
• The Senate undecided-allocation instruction must not automatically transfer to the governor question.
• Originating pollster: YouGov
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

GOVERNOR-NV — Emerson primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-05

Interviews end

2026-09-08

Published

2026-09-10

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 680.
• Sponsor: KLAS-TV
• Ballot/question: initial_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Methodology The Emerson College Polling Nevada survey was conducted September 5-8, 2026. The sample of likely voters, n=680, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.7 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. Data was collected by contacting a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web, and panel interviews provided by PureSpectrum. All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame.
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:27:18.854391+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.500895+00:00
• What is your party registration? Native Democrat/Republican/Independent-other categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated.
• Exact unrounded native weighted counts; categorical mass ratios, not renormalized rounded percentages.
• Exact workbook percentages can differ from stored whole-percent headline; neither is new movement.
• Actual native weighted workbook counts; native Independent/other includes unspecified leaners. Same-survey two-way issue/turnout tables do not identify three-way joints.
• Originating pollster: Emerson
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

GOVERNOR-NV — Noble Predictive Insights primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-22

Interviews end

2026-09-26

Published

2026-10-06

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 708.
• Ballot/question: Current election/candidate-trust/ballot-measure results use likely voters, separate fromRVcontext.
• Method: Opt-in online panel of 800 registered voters; 708 likely voters determined by screening. Weighted by gender, region, age, party, race/ethnicity, education and 2024 vote recall. Published LV margin of error: 3.68 percentage points.
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-09T05:11:26.663748+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-09T05:11:26.663748+00:00
• Current release R+2 matches stored D-minus-R margin -2.
• 800 is the registered-voter parent sample; 708 is the current likely-voter sample. Stored population and sample_size are null, so this is missing metadata rather than a wrong stored RV label.
• The March comparison uses registered voters and is directional only. It cannot establish a comparable LV trend.
• The linked original workbook returned unsupported content type; its full exact-shares table was not independently captured.
• Originating pollster: Noble Predictive Insights
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

GOVERNOR-OH — USA Today/Suffolk* primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-23

Interviews end

2026-09-27

Published

2026-10-02

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 500.
• Ballot/question: with_leaners_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Publisher LV questionnaire and complete count table; printed-count weighting precision unspecified
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:26:28.357617+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.390078+00:00
• Do you consider yourself to be a Democrat, Republican, or Independent? Native categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated. Other, missing or unregistered party responses remain a separate residual group.
• Publisher-tabulated integer counts; weighted/unweighted status and hidden fractional weighting precision not identified by retained PDFs. No claim of unrounded weighted counts.
• Original publisher-linked relative PDF hrefs are retained in the HTML. Actual returned web-connector response separately contains this literal primary index URL.
• Rounded existing parent margin is preserved. Decimal count reconstruction differences are precision differences, never new movement or correction.
• Originating pollster: USA Today/Suffolk*
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

GOVERNOR-TX — Emerson/Nexstar primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-12

Interviews end

2026-09-14

Published

2026-09-17

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 1000.
• Ballot/question: initial_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Methodology The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted September 12-14, 2026. The sample of likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web. Additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility in
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:27:18.839692+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.610170+00:00
• What is your party affiliation? Native Democrat/Republican/Independent-other categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated.
• Exact unrounded native weighted counts; categorical mass ratios, not renormalized rounded percentages.
• Exact workbook percentages can differ from stored whole-percent headline; neither is new movement.
• Actual native weighted workbook counts; native Independent/other includes unspecified leaners. Same-survey two-way issue/turnout tables do not identify three-way joints.
• Originating pollster: Emerson/Nexstar
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

GOVERNOR-TX — Marist primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-10-08

Interviews end

2026-10-11

Published

2026-10-14

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Sponsor: Marist University
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-14T12:32:21+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-14T12:38:52.599022+00:00
• Official primary page is dated October 14, 2026; interviews October 8-11, 2026.
• Governor ballot: In November's election for Governor, are you supporting: Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat; Greg Abbott, the Republican; Another party's candidate; Undecided; Vol: No response.
• Likely-voter row: Hinojosa45%, Abbott49%, another party1%, undecided3%, voluntary no response1%. Reported percentages are rounded.
• Methodology:1196 registered voters, weighted to estimated November2026 voting probabilities for likely-voter results. No separately identified LV respondent count is supplied in captured methodology; sample_size remains null.
• Mixed mode:265 live phone,698 text,233 online interviews. LV margin of error4.9 percentage points; design effect2.27. Funded by Marist University.
• The Marist wave is already a constituent of the refreshed RCP average. This review enriches its metadata only and must not add a second poll or overwrite the provider average.
• Originating pollster: Marist
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

HOUSE-NY-17 — Emerson/PIX11 primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-27

Interviews end

2026-09-29

Published

2026-10-01

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 400.
• Sponsor: PIX11
• Ballot/question: initial_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Methodology The Emerson College Polling/PIX11 News NY-17 survey was conducted September 27-29, 2026. The overall sample of NY17 likely voters, n=400, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/-4.9 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web . Additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized link
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:27:19.706590+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.740709+00:00
• What is your party registration? Native Democrat/Republican/Independent-other categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated.
• Exact unrounded native weighted counts; categorical mass ratios, not renormalized rounded percentages.
• Exact workbook percentages can differ from stored whole-percent headline; neither is new movement.
• Actual native weighted workbook counts; native Independent/other includes unspecified leaners. Same-survey two-way issue/turnout tables do not identify three-way joints.
• Originating pollster: Emerson/PIX11
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

NATIONAL-HOUSE — Pew Research primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-28

Interviews end

2026-10-04

Published

2026-10-08

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 3917.
• Sponsor: Pew Research Center
• Ballot/question: National House vote intention, combined vote/lean; district-candidate names with documented generic exceptions
• Method: Probability-recruited American Trends Panel Wave200; SSRS online4874/livephone188; English/Spanish; RVsubgroup3917 of5062 adults
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-09T10:03:25+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-09T10:08:07.940390+00:00
• Published44/36 is combined CONG/CONGA vote-plus-lean among registered voters. Candidate names are filled by respondent congressional district, with generic exceptions for Alaska/some Louisiana same-party multiple candidates, Missouri map litigation, unopposed major-party counterparts, and one unknown-district RV. No automatic comparable trend with a plain-party generic ballot or prior unmatched screen. Methodology survey-level response87% and cumulative response3% are survey response rates, not turnout. Topline p8 (zero-based7) confirms44D/36R/5other/15notSure, RVn3917.
• Originating pollster: Pew Research
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: RV

SENATE-IA — Emerson* primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-08-31

Interviews end

2026-09-01

Published

2026-09-03

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 750.
• Ballot/question: initial_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Methodology The Emerson College Polling Iowa survey was conducted August 31-September 1, 2026. The sample of likely voters, n=750, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.6 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web, with additional panel interviews provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized links that p
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:27:18.660306+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.463371+00:00
• What is your party registration? Native Democrat/Republican/Independent-other categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated.
• Exact unrounded native weighted counts; categorical mass ratios, not renormalized rounded percentages.
• Exact workbook percentages can differ from stored whole-percent headline; neither is new movement.
• Actual native weighted workbook counts; native Independent/other includes unspecified leaners. Same-survey two-way issue/turnout tables do not identify three-way joints.
• Originating pollster: Emerson*
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-IA — Suffolk University* primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-10-01

Interviews end

2026-10-04

Published

2026-10-07

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 500.
• Sponsor: Suffolk University
• Ballot/question: initial_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Publisher LV questionnaire and complete count table; printed-count weighting precision unspecified
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:26:27.925240+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.274128+00:00
• Are you currently enrolled as a Democrat, Republican, or No Party/Independent? Native categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated. Other, missing or unregistered party responses remain a separate residual group.
• Publisher-tabulated integer counts; weighted/unweighted status and hidden fractional weighting precision not identified by retained PDFs. No claim of unrounded weighted counts.
• Original publisher-linked relative PDF hrefs are retained in the HTML. Actual returned web-connector response separately contains this literal primary index URL.
• Rounded existing parent margin is preserved. Decimal count reconstruction differences are precision differences, never new movement or correction.
• Originating pollster: Suffolk University*
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-IA — Emerson* primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-10-05

Interviews end

2026-10-06

Published

2026-10-09

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 650.
• Sponsor: Nexstar Media
• Ballot/question: initial_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Methodology The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Iowa survey was conducted October 5-6, 2026. The overall sample of Iowa likely voters, n=650, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.8 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, party registration, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web. Additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized links
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:27:19.592782+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.820655+00:00
• What is your party registration? Native Democrat/Republican/Independent-other categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated.
• Exact unrounded native weighted counts; categorical mass ratios, not renormalized rounded percentages.
• Exact workbook percentages can differ from stored whole-percent headline; neither is new movement.
• Actual native weighted workbook counts; native Independent/other includes unspecified leaners. Same-survey two-way issue/turnout tables do not identify three-way joints.
• Originating pollster: Emerson*
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-KS — Emerson* primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-15

Interviews end

2026-09-16

Published

2026-09-18

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 750.
• Sponsor: Nexstar Media
• Ballot/question: initial_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Methodology The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media Kansas survey was conducted September 15-16, 2026. The sample of likely voters, n=750, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.6 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a voter file provided by Aristotle using MMS text-to-web . Additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sa
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:27:19.593391+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.655425+00:00
• What is your party registration? Native Democrat/Republican/Independent-other categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated.
• Exact unrounded native weighted counts; categorical mass ratios, not renormalized rounded percentages.
• Exact workbook percentages can differ from stored whole-percent headline; neither is new movement.
• Actual native weighted workbook counts; native Independent/other includes unspecified leaners. Same-survey two-way issue/turnout tables do not identify three-way joints.
• Originating pollster: Emerson*
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-KS — Trafalgar Group* primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-29

Interviews end

2026-10-01

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Original publication date remains unknown; interview and review dates are not publication dates.
• Recorded respondent sample: 1095.
• Ballot/question: Named three-candidate general-election ballot.
• Method: Report stateslikelygeneralelectionvoters,5.5%response,2.9%MoE;linksseparatepollingmethodology;samplingmode not established here.
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-09T05:03:51+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-09T05:11:27.463684+00:00
• Original table44.4D/43.5R/Graham2.0/undecided10.1 givesD+0.9.
• RCP44/44tie is whole-share rounding; current storedmargin0matchesRCP. Primary precision difference is not a numerical-import recommendation.
• Originating pollster: Trafalgar Group*
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-KS — YouGov primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-24

Interviews end

2026-10-04

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Original publication date remains unknown; interview and review dates are not publication dates.
• Recorded respondent sample: 2255.
• Ballot/question: Conditionaldid/will/would-vote wording; undecideds asked preference and allocated;someoneelse response category.
• Method: Stratified random sample from Kansas registered-voter list, contacted by SMS and interviewed online. Raking and an LV model using past vote, demographics and stated likelihood. Reported LV weights range below 0.1 to 10.3, coefficient of variation 1.2.
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-09T05:03:51+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-09T05:11:29.159444+00:00
• Original 48D/45R matches stored margin D+3.
• Original explicitly states that undecided voters were asked preference and allocated. Do not label this as an unallocated initial ballot.
• Stored population, sample, method and question fields are absent or null, not explicitly incorrect.
• 2,255 is the total respondent count; the Senate crosstab has unweighted n=2,253. Preserve distinct denominators.
• Originating pollster: YouGov
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-ME — Suffolk University primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-10-08

Interviews end

2026-10-11

Published

2026-10-14

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 500.
• Ballot/question: Q7 combined vote-or-lean named two-candidate ballot; all500likely respondents, undecided/refused retained.
• Method: This survey of 500 Maine general election voters was conducted between October 8 - October 11, 2026, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were very or somewhat likely vote in the November 2026 general election for Governor and U.S. Senator. Both standard landline and cell phones were sampled using probability-proportionate-to-size county allocation; demographic quotas use prior Maine midterm exit polls, the 2020 Census and ACS.
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-14T12:33:26+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-14T12:38:52.001375+00:00
• Exact primary Q7: Jackson245/500=49%; Collins235/500=47%; undecided19/500=3.8%; refused1/500=0.2%.
• Q7 explicitly combines votes and leaners; do not label as initial-only or infer a change from an unlike earlier question.
• The primary metadata-only contract stores ballot-stage evidence in primary_review; it does not manufacture an independent-voter attachment.
• Originating pollster: Suffolk University
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-MI — Emerson primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-12

Interviews end

2026-09-14

Published

2026-09-17

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 1000.
• Ballot/question: initial_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Methodology The Emerson College Polling Michigan survey was conducted September 12-14, 2026. The sample of likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web. Additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility intervals, as the sample size is reduced. Survey results should be understood within the poll’s range of scores, and with a confidence interval of 95% a poll will fall outside the range of scores 1 in 20 times. All respondents were recruited using customized
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:27:18.747041+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.534522+00:00
• What is your party affiliation? Native Democrat/Republican/Independent-other categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated.
• Exact unrounded native weighted counts; categorical mass ratios, not renormalized rounded percentages.
• Exact workbook percentages can differ from stored whole-percent headline; neither is new movement.
• Actual native weighted workbook counts; native Independent/other includes unspecified leaners. Same-survey two-way issue/turnout tables do not identify three-way joints.
• Originating pollster: Emerson
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-OH — USA Today/Suffolk* primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-23

Interviews end

2026-09-27

Published

2026-10-02

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 500.
• Ballot/question: with_leaners_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Publisher LV questionnaire and complete count table; printed-count weighting precision unspecified
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:26:28.357617+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.351484+00:00
• Do you consider yourself to be a Democrat, Republican, or Independent? Native categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated. Other, missing or unregistered party responses remain a separate residual group.
• Publisher-tabulated integer counts; weighted/unweighted status and hidden fractional weighting precision not identified by retained PDFs. No claim of unrounded weighted counts.
• Original publisher-linked relative PDF hrefs are retained in the HTML. Actual returned web-connector response separately contains this literal primary index URL.
• Rounded existing parent margin is preserved. Decimal count reconstruction differences are precision differences, never new movement or correction.
• Originating pollster: USA Today/Suffolk*
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-TX — Emerson* primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-09-12

Interviews end

2026-09-14

Published

2026-09-17

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Recorded respondent sample: 1000.
• Ballot/question: initial_named_candidate_ballot
• Method: Methodology The Emerson College Polling Texas survey was conducted September 12-14, 2026. The sample of likely voters, n=1,000, has a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3 percent. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region based on U.S. Census parameters and voter file data. Data was collected by contacting registered voters from a probability-based panel of voters provided by Consensus Strategies using MMS text-to-web. Additional panel interviews were provided by PureSpectrum. The survey was hosted on QuestionPro. All respondents were recruited using customized links that prevent responses from anyone outside of the poll’s sample frame. Panel responses were matched to the Aristotle voter file using respondents’ full name and ZIP code. The survey was offered in English. It is important to remember that subsets based on demographics, such as gender, age, education, and race/ethnicity, carry with them higher credibility in
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-11T19:27:18.839692+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-11T19:52:10.572688+00:00
• What is your party affiliation? Native Democrat/Republican/Independent-other categories; leaners and true nonleaners are not separated.
• Exact unrounded native weighted counts; categorical mass ratios, not renormalized rounded percentages.
• Exact workbook percentages can differ from stored whole-percent headline; neither is new movement.
• Actual native weighted workbook counts; native Independent/other includes unspecified leaners. Same-survey two-way issue/turnout tables do not identify three-way joints.
• Originating pollster: Emerson*
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-TX — Trafalgar Group* primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-10-06

Interviews end

2026-10-08

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Original publication date remains unknown; interview and review dates are not publication dates.
• Recorded respondent sample: 1086.
• Ballot/question: General-election multi-candidate Senate ballot including James Talarico, Ken Paxton, Ted Brown and undecided.
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-10T22:06:56+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-10T22:07:50.769940+00:00
• PDF page 2 lists 1,086 likely general-election voters and field dates October 6–8, 2026. Pages 8–9 give overall shares Talarico 47.1%, Paxton 43.6%, Ted Brown 1.8%, undecided 7.6%.
• RCP rounds the two major candidates to 47% and 44%; its D+3.0 average and this individual row remain unchanged by the design review.
• Sponsor and precise interviewing mode are not established in the captured release. No compatible trend or demographic correction is activated.
• Originating pollster: Trafalgar Group*
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

SENATE-TX — Marist primary design

Verified primary survey design; no added independent forecast coefficient

Source 1 · Source 2

Interviews begin

2026-10-08

Interviews end

2026-10-11

Published

2026-10-14

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Primary design evidence is distinct from the aggregation provider's vote shares and average.
• Sponsor: Marist University
• Ballot/question: Initial named Senate candidate support question, LV weighted column; another party, undecided and volunteered no response retained.
• Method: Marist interviewed 1,196 Texas registered voters October 8–11, 2026. The reported likely-voter results use estimated voting-probability weights. The LV margin of error is 4.9 percentage points; the primary release does not establish a separate unweighted LV sample count. Funded by Marist University.
• Evidence available by: 2026-10-14T12:32:44+00:00
• Design reviewed at: 2026-10-14T12:38:52.320681+00:00
• LV headline: Talarico 47%, Paxton 45%, another party 2%, undecided 4%, volunteered no response 2%. Original RCP shares retained.
• 1,196 is the registered-voter base, not a verified distinct LV denominator; sample_size remains null.
• The earlier September Marist Texas Senate observation uses RV. Do not treat the RV-to-LV difference as a comparable pollster trend.
• Primary questionnaire: Marist-Poll_TX-NOS-and-Tables_202610131056%5Eal3j7.pdf, Senate question lines 221–228.
• Originating pollster: Marist
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: LV

Aapor Historical Error

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-07

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-09T02:28:45.166279+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-09T02:28:45.166279+00:00.
• Type: historical
• Status: pinned_reference
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

AlphaROC/Independent Center original generic ballot 2026-09-28

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-28

Published

2026-10-01

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:34:10.466752+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:34:10.466752+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

BLS via FRED

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-30

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-23T21:59:05.162000+00:00

• Originator: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Republisher: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• BLS series CUUR0000SA0L1E; FRED series CPILFENS.
• Current revised histories do not establish the values available before historical elections.
• Type: economic
• Status: retained_history_unrefreshed
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

BLS via FRED

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-30

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:18+00:00

• Originator: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Republisher: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• BLS series CUUR0000SAF11; FRED series CUUR0000SAF11.
• Current revised histories do not establish the values available before historical elections.
• Type: economic
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

BLS via FRED

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-30

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-23T21:59:07.566000+00:00

• Originator: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Republisher: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• BLS series CUUR0000SA0; FRED series CPIAUCNS.
• Current revised histories do not establish the values available before historical elections.
• Type: economic
• Status: retained_history_unrefreshed
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

CBS News/YouGov original generic ballot 2026-09-11

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-11

Published

2026-09-13

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:34:11.484836+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:34:11.484836+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

CBS News/YouGov original generic ballot 2026-10-02

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-02

Published

2026-10-04

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:34:11.342407+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:34:11.342407+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Civiqs Trump Approval

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-06

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-08T19:34:14.129Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-08T19:34:14.129Z.
• Type: approval
• Status: verified_seed
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Cook Political Report — governor public ratings 2026-10-13

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-13

Published

2026-10-13

Retrieved

2026-10-14T12:21:50.938058+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Cook Political Report — House aggregate analysis

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-25

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-09T02:28:21Z

• Type: analysis_reference
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Cook Political Report — house public ratings 2026-10-09

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-09

Published

2026-10-09

Retrieved

2026-10-14T12:21:50.258574+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Cook Political Report — senate public ratings 2026-10-06

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-06

Published

2026-10-06

Retrieved

2026-10-14T12:21:50.615160+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Sabato's Crystal Ball via 270toWin

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-08

Published

2026-10-08

Retrieved

2026-10-13T16:07:06.188980+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

The Economist/YouGov original generic ballot 2026-08-17

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-17

Published

2026-08-18

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:45:50.964631+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:45:50.964631+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

The Economist/YouGov original generic ballot 2026-08-24

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-24

Published

2026-08-25

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:16.366280+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:16.366280+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

The Economist/YouGov original generic ballot 2026-08-31

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-31

Published

2026-09-01

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:16.082573+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:16.082573+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

The Economist/YouGov original generic ballot 2026-09-08

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-08

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.881953+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.881953+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

The Economist/YouGov original generic ballot 2026-09-14

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-14

Published

2026-09-15

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.456471+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.456471+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

The Economist/YouGov original generic ballot 2026-09-21

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-21

Published

2026-09-22

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:12.596037+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:12.596037+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

The Economist/YouGov original generic ballot 2026-09-28

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-28

Published

2026-09-29

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:11.105059+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:11.105059+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

The Economist/YouGov original generic ballot 2026-10-05

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-05

Published

2026-10-06

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:10.383762+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:10.383762+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

The Economist/YouGov original generic ballot 2026-10-12

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-12

Published

2026-10-14

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:10.366038+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:10.366038+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

EIA

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-19

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:51.980714+00:00

• Type: economic
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Emerson Releases

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:51.976439+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

FirstStrategic (original State Affairs reported poll)

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-05

Published

2026-10-05

Retrieved

2026-10-13T16:06:38.737417+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research original generic ballot 2026-09-14

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-14

Published

2026-09-16

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:34:08.281339+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:34:08.281339+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Harvard CAPS/HarrisX original generic ballot 2026-08-30

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-30

Published

2026-09-02

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:12.735847+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:12.735847+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Harvard CAPS/HarrisX original generic ballot 2026-09-28

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-28

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:09.396035+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:09.396035+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Independent Leadership Council CA-06 September primary topline

Recorded survey release or reporting source; unknown originating metadata remain unknown.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-29

Published

2026-09-29

Retrieved

2026-10-13T16:07:06.362244+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

Unknown pollster (Washington Reporter report)

Recorded survey release or reporting source; unknown originating metadata remain unknown.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-17

Published

2026-09-23

Retrieved

2026-10-09T02:27:38+00:00

• Type: Not recorded
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

Impact Research/HMP

Recorded survey release or reporting source; unknown originating metadata remain unknown.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-31

Published

2026-09-09

Retrieved

2026-10-09T02:28:06.899270+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-09T02:28:06.899270+00:00.
• Type: Not recorded
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

Global Strategy Group/HMP

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-13

Published

2026-08-31

Retrieved

2026-10-09T02:28:06.912965+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-09T02:28:06.912965+00:00.
• Type: Not recorded
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Emerson/PIX11

Recorded survey release or reporting source; unknown originating metadata remain unknown.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-01

Published

2026-10-01

Retrieved

2026-10-09T02:28:07.577053+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-09T02:28:07.577053+00:00.
• Type: Not recorded
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

Franklin & Marshall

Recorded survey release or reporting source; unknown originating metadata remain unknown.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-24

Published

2026-09-24

Retrieved

2026-10-09T02:28:07.252963+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-09T02:28:07.252963+00:00.
• Type: Not recorded
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

Franklin & Marshall

Recorded survey release or reporting source; unknown originating metadata remain unknown.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-24

Published

2026-09-24

Retrieved

2026-10-09T02:28:07.252963+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-09T02:28:07.252963+00:00.
• Type: Not recorded
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

Texas Southern University

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-22

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-09T02:28:07.405583+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-09T02:28:07.405583+00:00.
• Type: Not recorded
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Texas Southern University

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-22

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-09T02:28:07.405583+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-09T02:28:07.405583+00:00.
• Type: Not recorded
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

DHM/OPB

Recorded survey release or reporting source; unknown originating metadata remain unknown.

Source 1 · Source 2

Observed / reference

2026-10-01

Published

2026-10-01

Retrieved

2026-10-09T02:30:42.048364+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-09T02:30:42.048364+00:00.
• Type: Not recorded
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

SurveyUSA HOUSE-CA-48 2026-10-07

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-07

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-19T23:51:59.417438+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-19T23:51:59.417438+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

SurveyUSA HOUSE-CA-48 2026-09-01

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-01

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-19T23:50:34+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-19T23:50:34+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

GBAO HOUSE-MI-04 2026-09-16

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-16

Published

2026-09-21

Retrieved

2026-10-19T23:51:59.418802+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-19T23:51:59.418802+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

GQR HOUSE-NC-01 2026-10-04

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-04

Published

2026-10-05

Retrieved

2026-10-20T12:45:40.075792+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T12:45:40.075792+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

National Public Affairs HOUSE-NE-02 2026-10-05

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-05

Published

2026-10-12

Retrieved

2026-10-19T23:51:10+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-19T23:51:10+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

StimSight Research HOUSE-NJ-07 2026-09-12

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-12

Published

2026-09-14

Retrieved

2026-10-19T23:51:18+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-19T23:51:18+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

DCCC Analytics Department HOUSE-OH-09 2026-09-23

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-23

Published

2026-09-29

Retrieved

2026-10-20T12:42:26+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T12:42:26+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

Christopher Newport University/Wason Center HOUSE-VA-02 2026-10-10

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-10

Published

2026-10-14

Retrieved

2026-10-20T12:53:02.971+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T12:53:02.971+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Declared roster allocations — unverified prediction assumptions

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-07

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

Not recorded

• Declared roster and holder allocations are model assumptions, not Cook-verified observations.
• Type: declared_model_assumption
• Status: declared_assumption
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Inside Elections

Publisher ratings used by the recorded allocation rules where local polling is unavailable.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-15

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:18+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 25 race calculations

Inside Elections

Publisher ratings used by the recorded allocation rules where local polling is unavailable.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-15

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:08:12+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 409 race calculations

Inside Elections

Publisher ratings used by the recorded allocation rules where local polling is unavailable.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-15

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:18+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 23 race calculations

Gallup

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-17

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-12T22:10:53.672756+00:00

• Type: Not recorded
• Status: parse_error
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

University of Michigan

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:51.979064+00:00

• Type: sentiment
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

BLS via FRED

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-30

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:18+00:00

• Originator: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Republisher: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• BLS series CUUR0000SA0E; FRED series CPIENGNS.
• Current revised histories do not establish the values available before historical elections.
• Type: Not recorded
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

BLS via FRED

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-30

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:18+00:00

• Originator: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Republisher: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• BLS series CUSR0000SA0; FRED series CPIAUCSL.
• Current revised histories do not establish the values available before historical elections.
• Type: Not recorded
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

University of Michigan

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:52.145435+00:00

• Type: expectations
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

BLS via FRED

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-30

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:16+00:00

• Originator: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Republisher: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• BLS series CES0500000003; FRED series CES0500000003.
• Current revised histories do not establish the values available before historical elections.
• Type: Not recorded
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

BLS via FRED

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-30

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:18+00:00

• Originator: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Republisher: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
• BLS series LNS14000000; FRED series UNRATE.
• Current revised histories do not establish the values available before historical elections.
• Type: Not recorded
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Marist Poll: Iowa October2026 original release

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-11

Published

2026-10-15

Retrieved

2026-10-15T10:10:25.711219+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T10:10:25.711219+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Marist Poll: Michigan October21 original release

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-18

Published

2026-10-21

Retrieved

2026-10-21T12:25:49.398724+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-21T12:25:49.398724+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Marist Poll: Ohio October2026 original release

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-18

Published

2026-10-20

Retrieved

2026-10-20T10:26:08.443221+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T10:26:08.443221+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Marist Polls

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:52.279547+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

National Public Affairs — Nebraska Senate original full-ballot release October 12, 2026

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-12

Published

2026-10-12

Retrieved

2026-10-14T22:27:24+00:00

• Type: polling
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

NPR/PBS News/Marist original generic ballot 2026-09-15

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-15

Published

2026-09-23

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:34:08.447103+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:34:08.447103+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Pew Research Center original generic ballot 2026-10-04

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-04

Published

2026-10-08

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:34:08.320125+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:34:08.320125+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Cato Institute/Morning Consult original generic ballot 2026-08-16

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-16

Published

2026-09-17

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:29:56+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:29:56+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

CBSNews/YouGov original MaineSenate Oct1

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-01

Published

2026-10-02

Retrieved

2026-10-20T18:11:37.869392+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T18:11:37.869392+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

CBS News/YouGov Texas Senate and governor October8–16,2026

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-16

Published

2026-10-18

Retrieved

2026-10-20T16:15:42.671995+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T16:15:42.671995+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

CNN/SSRS original local ballots 2026-10-05

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-05

Published

2026-10-08

Retrieved

2026-10-15T17:31:31.725233+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T17:31:31.725233+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

CNN/SSRS original national House ballot September16–17,2026

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-17

Published

2026-09-23T09:00:29.640Z

Retrieved

2026-10-21T13:26:03.478Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-21T13:26:03.478Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

CNN/SSRS original national House ballot October15–18,2026

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-18

Published

2026-10-21T08:00:45.094Z

Retrieved

2026-10-21T12:38:15.864Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-21T12:38:15.864Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

CNN/SSRS original local ballots 2026-10-05

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-05

Published

2026-10-08

Retrieved

2026-10-15T17:31:32.113525+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T17:31:32.113525+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Cygnal original generic ballot 2026-10-10

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-10

Published

2026-10-12

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:32:38.643209+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:32:38.643209+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Cygnal original generic ballot 2026-09-02

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-02

Published

2026-09-09

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:32:38.248569+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:32:38.248569+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Cygnal original generic ballot 2026-10-02

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-02

Published

2026-10-07

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:32:37.290335+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:32:37.290335+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Emerson original IA 2026-10-06

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-06

Published

2026-10-09T10:00:59+00:00

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:46:48.194958+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:46:48.194958+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media original local ballots 2026-09-16

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-16

Published

2026-09-18T10:57:22+00:00

Retrieved

2026-10-15T17:35:06.006338+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T17:35:06.006338+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Emerson original MI 2026-09-14

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-14

Published

2026-09-17T10:00:03+00:00

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:46:48.351325+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:46:48.351325+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Emerson original NV 2026-09-08

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-08

Published

2026-09-10T10:01:47+00:00

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:46:48.399616+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:46:48.399616+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Emerson original NY17 2026-09-29

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-29

Published

2026-10-01T09:58:10+00:00

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:46:48.475253+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:46:48.475253+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Emerson College Polling — Texas September 12–14, 2026

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-14

Published

2026-09-17

Retrieved

2026-10-15T20:34:03.171826+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T20:34:03.171826+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Emerson College original 2026-10-22

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-19

Published

2026-10-22

Retrieved

2026-10-24T01:05:50.422748+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-24T01:05:50.422748+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Focaldata/Financial Times original generic ballot 2026-10-05

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-05

Published

2026-10-11

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:32:39.179366+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:32:39.179366+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Focaldata/Financial Times original generic ballot 2026-09-02

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-02

Published

2026-09-06

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:32:39.546790+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:32:39.546790+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Fox News/Beacon/Shaw Iowa Senate and governor September24–28,2026

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-28

Published

2026-10-01

Retrieved

2026-10-20T16:15:08.628424+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T16:15:08.628424+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Fox News MI original September24–28 Senate/governor release

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-28

Published

2026-09-30T18:00:00-04:00

Retrieved

2026-10-20T16:14:04.072706+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T16:14:04.072706+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Fox News original national House ballot October9–12,2026

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-12

Published

2026-10-14T18:00:00-04:00

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:47:55.077519+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:47:55.077519+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Fox News/Beacon/Shaw Ohio Senate and governor October15–19,2026

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-19

Published

2026-10-21

Retrieved

2026-10-22T11:36:51+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-22T11:36:51+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Fox News TX original September24–28 Senate/governor release

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-28

Published

2026-10-01T18:00:00-04:00

Retrieved

2026-10-20T16:14:04.180564+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T16:14:04.180564+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Fox News/Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research original 2026-10-21

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-19

Published

2026-10-21

Retrieved

2026-10-24T01:09:58.216395+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-24T01:09:58.216395+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos original national House ballot 2026-10-13

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-13

Published

2026-10-20

Retrieved

2026-10-20T15:12:10.284635+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T15:12:10.284635+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Angus Reid USA original generic ballot 2026-09-25

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-25

Published

2026-09-29

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.590441+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.590441+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Centerline Research & Strategy original generic ballot 2026-10-01

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-01

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.559043+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.559043+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Echelon Insights original generic ballot 2026-08-17

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-17

Published

2026-08-18

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:14.925049+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:14.925049+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Echelon Insights original generic ballot 2026-09-21

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-21

Published

2026-09-23

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:31:04.314994+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:31:04.314994+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Echelon Insights original national House ballot 2026-10-19

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-19

Published

2026-10-20T20:24:28.000Z

Retrieved

2026-10-20T22:13:01.234597+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T22:13:01.234597+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Emerson College Polling original generic ballot 2026-08-17

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-17

Published

2026-08-20

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:15.062742+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:15.062742+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Emerson College Polling original generic ballot 2026-09-22

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-22

Published

2026-09-24

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.537490+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.537490+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

KFF original generic ballot 2026-09-21

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-21

Published

2026-10-06

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:31:04.734175+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:31:04.734175+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Morning Consult native national generic ballot week ending2026-10-18

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-18

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-20T15:14:33.915Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T15:14:33.915Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

The Rainey Center original generic ballot 2026-09-14

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-14

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:14.101460+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:14.101460+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Rasmussen Reports original generic ballot 2026-08-30

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-30

Published

2026-09-02

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:32:37.436821+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:32:37.436821+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Rasmussen Reports original generic ballot 2026-09-09

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-09

Published

2026-09-14

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:38:07.372753+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:38:07.372753+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Rasmussen Reports original generic ballot 2026-09-16

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-16

Published

2026-09-21

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:36:47.644447+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:36:47.644447+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Rasmussen Reports original generic ballot 2026-10-07

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-07

Published

2026-10-12

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:32:37.134355+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:32:37.134355+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Rasmussen Reports original national House ballot field ending2026-10-14 published2026-10-19

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-14

Published

2026-10-19

Retrieved

2026-10-20T16:19:33.475587+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T16:19:33.475587+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Reuters/Ipsos original generic ballot 2026-08-17

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-17

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:31:09.301907+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:31:09.301907+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Reuters/Ipsos original generic ballot 2026-08-24

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-24

Published

2026-08-24

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:31:09.230109+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:31:09.230109+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Reuters/Ipsos original generic ballot 2026-08-31

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-31

Published

2026-08-31

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:31:07.498161+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:31:07.498161+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Reuters/Ipsos original generic ballot 2026-09-14

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-14

Published

2026-09-14

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:31:07.324344+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:31:07.324344+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Reuters/Ipsos original generic ballot 2026-09-20

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-20

Published

2026-09-21

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:31:06.988597+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:31:06.988597+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Reuters/Ipsos original generic ballot 2026-10-05

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-05

Published

2026-10-05

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:31:04.355699+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:31:04.355699+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Reuters/Ipsos original national House ballot 2026-10-19

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-19

Published

2026-10-19

Retrieved

2026-10-20T15:12:10.353443+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T15:12:10.353443+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: cygnal-national

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:52.281591+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-program-cbs-yougov

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:52.554372+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-firm-reuters-ipsos-knowledgepanel

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:52.602940+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: verasight-strength-in-numbers

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:52.616769+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: cnn-ssrs

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-20T16:54:51.532987+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: http_error
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-program-harvard-caps-harrisx

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:52.849941+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-program-fox-beacon-shaw

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:52.886017+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: marquette-national

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:52.938637+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: john-zogby-national

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:52.957548+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: focaldata-financial-times

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:53.108351+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: national-public-affairs

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:17+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: university-of-texas-texas-politics-project

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:53.109598+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-firm-centerline-research-national

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:53.123889+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: stimsight-research

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:53.302238+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: christopher-newport-wason

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:53.342364+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-firm-kff-health-tracking

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:53.633845+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-program-alpharoc-independent-center

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:53.635646+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-program-quantus-insights

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:53.791148+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-firm-rainey-center-policy-survey

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:53.836325+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-program-pew-research

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:54.002006+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: formal-b22708527f21e199

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:54.060020+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: trafalgar-group

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:54.183416+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: rmg-napolitan-generic

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:54.206366+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: surveyusa

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:54.532717+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-firm-rasmussen-reports

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:54.665267+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-firm-angus-reid-usa

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:54.962668+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: gbao

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-23T21:58:15.810000+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: gqr

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:55.021295+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: yougov-state-election-survey

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:55.151529+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-program-economist-yougov

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:55.319489+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: morning-consult-midterm-tracker

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T01:06:27.532000+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original publisher polling discovery: primary-firm-echelon-insights-omnibus

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:55.622087+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Original SSRS public political and election polling news archive

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-23T21:57:38.989000+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Marist Poll primary-marist-ia-20260920

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-20

Published

2026-09-22

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:49:43.240805+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:49:43.240805+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Marist Poll primary-marist-me-20261004

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-04

Published

2026-10-06

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:49:43.255651+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:49:43.255651+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Marist Poll primary-marist-mi-20260927

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-27

Published

2026-09-30

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:49:43.284830+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:49:43.284830+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Marist Poll primary-marist-oh-20260927

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-27

Published

2026-09-29

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:49:43.235963+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:49:43.235963+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Marist Poll original local ballots 2026-10-11

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-11

Published

2026-10-14

Retrieved

2026-10-15T17:28:54.657815+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T17:28:54.657815+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Marist Poll primary-marist-tx-20260920

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-20

Published

2026-09-23

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:49:43.244254+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:49:43.244254+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Marquette University Law School original generic ballot 2026-09-09

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-09

Published

2026-09-16

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:34:10+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:34:10+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Morning Consult original generic ballot 2026-08-16

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-16

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Morning Consult original generic ballot 2026-08-23

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-23

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Morning Consult original generic ballot 2026-08-30

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-30

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Morning Consult original generic ballot 2026-09-06

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-06

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Morning Consult original generic ballot 2026-09-13

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-13

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Morning Consult original generic ballot 2026-09-20

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-20

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Morning Consult original generic ballot 2026-09-27

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-27

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Morning Consult original generic ballot 2026-10-04

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-04

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Morning Consult original generic ballot 2026-10-11

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-11

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:30:13.886738+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

RMG Research/Napolitan News Service original generic ballot 2026-09-15

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-15

Published

2026-09-17

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:32:14+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:32:14+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Quantus Insights original SENATE-AK field ending 2026-09-30

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-30

Published

2026-10-02

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:58:04.465Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:58:04.465Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Quantus Insights GA original initial Senate ballot ending2026-09-16

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-16

Published

2026-09-18

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:58:03.000Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:58:03.000Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Quantus Insights original SENATE-GA,GOVERNOR-GA field ending 2026-10-17

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-17

Published

2026-10-19

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:58:10.489Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:58:10.489Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Quantus Insights original SENATE-IA field ending 2026-09-29

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-29

Published

2026-09-30

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:58:08.866Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:58:08.866Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Quantus Insights ME original initial Senate ballot ending2026-09-15

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-15

Published

2026-09-16

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:58:06.610Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:58:06.610Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Quantus Insights original SENATE-MI field ending 2026-10-06

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-06

Published

2026-10-07

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:58:11.406Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:58:11.406Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Quantus Insights MN original initial Senate ballot ending2026-09-10

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-10

Published

2026-09-11

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:58:05.958Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:58:05.958Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Quantus Insights original SENATE-NC field ending 2026-09-22

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-22

Published

2026-09-23

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:58:13.067Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:58:13.067Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Quantus Insights original SENATE-OH field ending 2026-09-23

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-23

Published

2026-09-24

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:58:02.302Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:58:02.302Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Quantus Insights original SENATE-TX field ending 2026-10-11

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-11

Published

2026-10-13

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:58:07.386Z

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:58:07.386Z.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Suffolk University original iowa statewide 2026-10-04

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-04

Published

2026-10-07

Retrieved

2026-10-20T18:03:02.067565+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T18:03:02.067565+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Suffolk University original maine statewide 2026-10-11

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-11

Published

2026-10-14

Retrieved

2026-10-20T18:03:02.110794+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T18:03:02.110794+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Suffolk University original michigan statewide 2026-09-20

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-20

Published

2026-09-22

Retrieved

2026-10-20T18:03:03.023081+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T18:03:03.023081+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Suffolk University/USA TODAY Network Ohio original local ballots 2026-09-27

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-27

Published

2026-10-02

Retrieved

2026-10-15T17:28:56.162820+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T17:28:56.162820+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

SurveyUSA original NorthCarolina Senate October2026

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-11

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:53:47.286846+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:53:47.286846+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Trafalgar original GA Senate 2026-10-09

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-09

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:53:45.210413+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:53:45.210413+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Trafalgar Group IA Senate Oct13–15 2026 original release

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-15

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-18T13:15:33+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-18T13:15:33+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Trafalgar Group MN Senate Oct13–15 2026 original release

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-15

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-18T13:15:33+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-18T13:15:33+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Trafalgar original NC Senate 2026-10-10

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-10

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:53:45.949169+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:53:45.949169+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Trafalgar original TX Senate 2026-10-08

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-08

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:53:46.007640+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:53:46.007640+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

University of Texas Texas Politics Project — Texas September 25–October 5, 2026

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-05

Published

2026-10-13

Retrieved

2026-10-15T20:24:57.194710+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T20:24:57.194710+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Strength In Numbers/Verasight original generic ballot 2026-08-19

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-19

Published

2026-08-26

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:37:41.916889+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:37:41.916889+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Strength In Numbers/Verasight original generic ballot 2026-09-21

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-21

Published

2026-09-23

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:37:41.375563+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:37:41.375563+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Strength In Numbers/Verasight original national House ballot October13–19,2026

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-19

Published

2026-10-21T10:03:30+00:00

Retrieved

2026-10-21T12:24:55.266140+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-21T12:24:55.266140+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

YouGov primary-yougov-fl-20261005

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-05

Published

2026-10-07

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:58:48.053224+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:58:48.053224+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

YouGov original local ballots 2026-10-04

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-04

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T17:28:55.544841+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T17:28:55.544841+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

YouGov primary-yougov-mi-20261004

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-04

Published

2026-10-07

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:49:43.522762+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:49:43.522762+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

YouGov primary-yougov-nh-20261005

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-05

Published

2026-10-07

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:49:43.516518+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:49:43.516518+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

YouGov primary-yougov-oh-20260930

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-30

Published

2026-10-07

Retrieved

2026-10-20T17:49:43.527030+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-20T17:49:43.527030+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

YouGov — Texas September 28–October 5, 2026

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-05

Published

2026-10-07

Retrieved

2026-10-15T20:24:57.009314+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T20:24:57.009314+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

John Zogby Strategies original generic ballot 2026-09-17

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-17

Published

2026-09-18T00:41:02+00:00

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:32:40.107139+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:32:40.107139+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Quantus Insights original generic ballot 2026-08-28

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-08-28

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:38:31.294642+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:38:31.294642+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Quantus Insights original generic ballot 2026-09-18

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-18

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-15T14:38:31.020762+00:00

• Retained primary capture retrieved at 2026-10-15T14:38:31.020762+00:00.
• Type: polls
• Status: ok
• Referenced by 12 race calculations

Quinnipiac University Poll

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-07

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-08T17:52:30.686988+00:00

• Type: primary_poll_release
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-22

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-23T22:01:20.608000+00:00

• Type: Not recorded
• Status: retained_history_unrefreshed
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-20

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-18

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-08

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-20

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-17

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:26+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-19

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-04

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-18

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-26

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-19

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-01

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: Not recorded
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-19

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-23

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-16

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-22

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-14

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-20

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-22

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-21

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-20

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-20

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-22

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

RealClearPolling

Aggregation provider; originating survey firms and voter screens retain their separate identities.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-19

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:27+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

Reviewed 60-day governor polling anchor

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-09-30

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-08T17:52:30.773269+00:00

• Type: Not recorded
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-08

Published

2026-10-08

Retrieved

2026-10-13T16:07:05.014616+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Trafalgar Group Georgia initial ballot 2026-10-07–09

Tracked evidence or research context; independent predictive use is specified in the released model.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-09

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-14T23:36:58+00:00

• Type: polls
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 1 race calculations

Suffolk Research

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:55.774990+00:00

• Type: release_discovery
• Status: discovery_checked
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Cook Political Report — governor public ratings 2026-10-13

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-13

Published

2026-10-13

Retrieved

2026-10-14T12:21:50.938058+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Cook Political Report — house public ratings 2026-10-09

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-09

Published

2026-10-09

Retrieved

2026-10-14T12:21:50.258574+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Cook Political Report — senate public ratings 2026-10-06

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-06

Published

2026-10-06

Retrieved

2026-10-14T12:21:50.615160+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Sabato's Crystal Ball via 270toWin

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-08

Published

2026-10-08

Retrieved

2026-10-13T16:07:06.188980+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

Inside Elections

Publisher ratings used by the recorded allocation rules where local polling is unavailable.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-15

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:18+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 25 race calculations

Inside Elections

Publisher ratings used by the recorded allocation rules where local polling is unavailable.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-15

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:08:12+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 409 race calculations

Inside Elections

Publisher ratings used by the recorded allocation rules where local polling is unavailable.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-15

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:18+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: connector_verified
• Referenced by 23 race calculations

Sabato's Crystal Ball

Registered diagnostic or reference; not consumed by any released race calculation.

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-08

Published

2026-10-08

Retrieved

2026-10-13T16:07:05.014616+00:00

• Type: race_ratings
• Status: reviewed_import
• Referenced by 0 race calculations

U.S. regular gasoline

Historical indicator archive; display is context, not an independently fitted forecast effect

Source

First displayed observation

2000-12-25

Last displayed observation

2026-10-19

• Last recorded observation in each calendar year; 2026 is partial.
• Units: USD per gallon

Unemployment rate

Historical indicator archive; display is context, not an independently fitted forecast effect

Source

First displayed observation

2000-12

Last displayed observation

2026-09

• Last recorded observation in each calendar year; 2026 is partial.
• Units: percent

Consumer sentiment

Historical indicator archive; display is context, not an independently fitted forecast effect

Source

First displayed observation

2000-12

Last displayed observation

2026-10

• Last recorded observation in each calendar year; 2026 is partial.
• Units: index, 1966Q1=100

Employment Situation release calendar

Official release schedule, not a measurement

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-16

• Not recorded

CPI and real earnings release calendar

Official release schedule, not a measurement

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-16

• Not recorded

Consumer sentiment preliminary release calendar

Official release schedule, not a measurement

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-16

• Not recorded

EIA gasoline release calendar

Official release schedule, not a measurement

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-16

• Not recorded

GDP (Advance Estimate) release calendar

Official release schedule, not a measurement

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-16

• Not recorded

Presidential job approval

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4 · Source 5

Reference period

2026-10-22

Interviews begin

Not recorded

Interviews end

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-23T22:01:20.608000+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Historical comparison: 2000-10-09: Bill Clinton, All U.S. adults, 58% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2018-09-19: Donald Trump, All registered voters, 44% approve (RV)
• Historical comparison: 2020-09-10: Donald Trump, All registered voters, 48% approve (RV)
• Historical comparison: 2022-09-12: Joe Biden, All registered voters, 43% approve (RV)
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded
• Status: retained_capture

Congress job approval

Source

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-01

Interviews end

2026-09-17

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-23T22:00:25.025140+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job?
• Historical comparison: GALLUP_CONGRESS
• Voter screen: A
• Population: US adults
• Status: retained_capture

Consumer sentiment

Source

Reference period

2026-10

Interviews begin

Not recorded

Interviews end

Not recorded

Published

2026-10-23

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:51.979064+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Historical comparison: UMICH_SENTIMENT
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded
• Status: retained_capture

Unemployment rate

Source

Reference period

2026-09

Interviews begin

Not recorded

Interviews end

Not recorded

Published

2026-10-02

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:18+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Historical comparison: Unemployment rate
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded
• Status: retained_capture

Nominal hourly wage growth

Source

Reference period

2026-09

Interviews begin

Not recorded

Interviews end

Not recorded

Published

2026-10-02

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:16+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Historical comparison: Average hourly earnings, all private nonfarm employees
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded
• Status: retained_capture

Real hourly wage growth

Source 1 · Source 2

Reference period

2026-09

Interviews begin

Not recorded

Interviews end

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:16+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Historical comparison: Average hourly earnings, all private nonfarm employees
• Historical comparison: CPI-U headline, seasonally adjusted
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded
• Status: retained_capture

Headline inflation

Source

Reference period

2026-09

Interviews begin

Not recorded

Interviews end

Not recorded

Published

2026-10-14

Retrieved

2026-10-23T21:59:07.566000+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Historical comparison: CPI-U headline
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded
• Status: retained_capture

Core inflation

Source

Reference period

2026-09

Interviews begin

Not recorded

Interviews end

Not recorded

Published

2026-10-14

Retrieved

2026-10-23T21:59:05.162000+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Historical comparison: CPI-U excluding food and energy
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded
• Status: retained_capture

Grocery inflation

Source

Reference period

2026-09

Interviews begin

Not recorded

Interviews end

Not recorded

Published

2026-10-14

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:18+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Historical comparison: CPI-U food at home
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded
• Status: retained_capture

Regular gasoline

Source 1 · Source 2

Reference period

2026-10-19

Interviews begin

Not recorded

Interviews end

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:06:51.980714+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Historical comparison: U.S. regular gasoline, all formulations, taxes included
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded
• Status: retained_capture

Energy inflation

Source

Reference period

2026-09

Interviews begin

Not recorded

Interviews end

Not recorded

Published

2026-10-14

Retrieved

2026-10-24T10:07:18+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Historical comparison: CPI-U energy
• Voter screen: Not recorded
• Population: Not recorded
• Status: retained_capture

Immigration issue importance

Source

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-02

Interviews end

2026-09-09

Published

2026-09-16

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?
• Voter screen: A
• Population: U.S. adults
• Status: primary_verified

Immigration D-minus-R party ownership

Source

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-02

Interviews end

2026-09-09

Published

2026-09-16

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Do you think the (Republican) party or the (Democratic) party would do a better job handling each of the following issues?
• Voter screen: A
• Population: U.S. adults
• Status: primary_verified

Disapproval of Trump’s handling of Iran

Source

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-24

Interviews end

2026-09-28

Published

2026-10-01

Retrieved

2026-10-08T19:30:39.349705+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling…? Iran
• Voter screen: A
• Population: U.S. adults age18+ in50states andDC
• Status: primary_verified

D-minus-R certainty of voting

Source

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-02

Interviews end

2026-09-09

Published

2026-09-16

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2026 general election for congressional and state offices– are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote?
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: U.S. registered voters; Democratic and Republican identifiers shown separately
• Status: primary_verified

Trump approval: White men

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-11

Interviews end

2026-09-14

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-08T19:30:39.349705+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
• Historical comparison: 2018-09-19: Donald Trump, White men, 56% approve (RV)
• Historical comparison: 2020-09-10: Donald Trump, White men, 63% approve (RV)
• Historical comparison: 2022-09-12: Joe Biden, White men, 33% approve (RV)
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: U.S. registered voters
• Status: primary_verified

Trump approval: White men without college

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-11

Interviews end

2026-09-14

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-08T19:30:39.349705+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
• Historical comparison: 2018-09-19: Donald Trump, White men without college degree, 59% approve (RV)
• Historical comparison: 2020-09-10: Donald Trump, White men without college degree, 60% approve (RV)
• Historical comparison: 2022-09-12: Joe Biden, White men without college degree, 32% approve (RV)
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: U.S. registered voters
• Status: primary_verified

Trump approval: Hispanic voters

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-11

Interviews end

2026-09-14

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-08T19:30:39.349705+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
• Historical comparison: 2001-06-17: George W. Bush, Hispanic adults, 59% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2002-06-09: George W. Bush, Hispanic adults, 73% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2002-10-08: George W. Bush, Hispanic adults, 61% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2003-06-18: George W. Bush, Hispanic adults, 67% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2004-06-30: George W. Bush, Hispanic adults, 40% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2005-06-25: George W. Bush, Hispanic adults, 41% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2006-06-25: George W. Bush, Hispanic adults, 38% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2020-09-10: Donald Trump, Hispanic registered voters, 45% approve (RV)
• Historical comparison: 2022-09-12: Joe Biden, Hispanic registered voters, 50% approve (RV)
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: U.S. registered voters
• Status: primary_verified

Trump approval: Black voters

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4

Reference period

2026-10-06

Interviews begin

Not recorded

Interviews end

Not recorded

Published

Not recorded

Retrieved

2026-10-08T19:34:14.129Z

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
• Historical comparison: 2001-06-17: George W. Bush, Black adults, 37% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2002-06-09: George W. Bush, Black adults, 41% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2003-06-18: George W. Bush, Black adults, 32% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2004-06-30: George W. Bush, Black adults, 16% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2005-06-25: George W. Bush, Black adults, 16% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2006-06-25: George W. Bush, Black adults, 15% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2020-09-10: Donald Trump, Black registered voters, 11% approve (RV)
• Historical comparison: 2022-09-12: Joe Biden, Black registered voters, 71% approve (RV)
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: National registered voters
• Status: primary_verified

Trump approval: Asian adults

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-08-21

Interviews end

2026-08-26

Published

2026-08-31

Retrieved

2026-10-08T19:30:39.349705+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Do you approve or disapprove of the way each is doing their job? President Donald Trump
• Historical comparison: 2012-03-27: Barack Obama, U.S. Asian adults ages 18 and older, including noncitizens and multiracial Asians regardless of Hispanic ethnicity, 54% approve (A)
• Historical comparison: 2024-07-07: Joe Biden, Non-Hispanic single-race Asian adults, English speakers only, 35% approve (A)
• Voter screen: A
• Population: National U.S. adult respondents
• Status: primary_verified

Matched issue ownership index

Source

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-02

Interviews end

2026-09-09

Published

2026-09-16

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Analyst-derived index from the two separately published questions recorded above.
• Voter screen: A
• Population: U.S. adults
• Status: primary_verified

Confidence in fair and accurate elections

Source

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-07-06

Interviews end

2026-07-12

Published

2026-08-05

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Thinking about the congressional elections this November, how confident, if at all, are you that... The election will be conducted fairly and accurately.
• Voter screen: A
• Population: U.S. adults
• Status: primary_verified

Election confidence: Republicans and leaners

Source

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-07-06

Interviews end

2026-07-12

Published

2026-08-05

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Thinking about the congressional elections this November, how confident, if at all, are you that... The election will be conducted fairly and accurately.
• Voter screen: A
• Population: U.S. Republican and Republican-leaning adults
• Status: primary_verified

Election confidence: Democrats and leaners

Source

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-07-06

Interviews end

2026-07-12

Published

2026-08-05

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Thinking about the congressional elections this November, how confident, if at all, are you that... The election will be conducted fairly and accurately.
• Voter screen: A
• Population: U.S. Democratic and Democratic-leaning adults
• Status: primary_verified

SENATE-ME candidate favorability gap

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4 · Source 5

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-10-01

Interviews end

2026-10-04

Published

2026-10-06

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Question summary (paraphrase): In general, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the named candidate?
• Historical comparison: US-PRES-2000: D-minus-R net favorability -5 pp; official vote margin +0.52 pp (national presidential popular-vote context; Electoral College outcome is separate; not a coefficient). Poll published 2000-10-24 (day precision).
• Historical comparison: ME-GOV-2014: D-minus-R net favorability +8.2 pp; official vote margin -4.81 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2014-10 (month precision).
• Historical comparison: ME-02-HOUSE-2014: D-minus-R net favorability +2.2 pp; official vote margin -5.20 pp (geographic mismatch: statewide image / district ballot; not a coefficient). Poll published 2014-10 (month precision).
• Historical comparison: ME-SEN-2020: D-minus-R net favorability +20 pp; official vote margin -8.60 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2020-09-16 (day precision).
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: registered voters
• Status: primary_verified

SENATE-OH candidate favorability gap

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4 · Source 5 · Source 6

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-24

Interviews end

2026-09-27

Published

2026-09-29

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Question summary (paraphrase): In general, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the named candidate?
• Historical comparison: US-PRES-2000: D-minus-R net favorability -5 pp; official vote margin +0.52 pp (national presidential popular-vote context; Electoral College outcome is separate; not a coefficient). Poll published 2000-10-24 (day precision).
• Historical comparison: OH-SEN-2006: D-minus-R net favorability +4 pp; official vote margin +12.35 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2006-09-20 (day precision).
• Historical comparison: OH-SEN-2010: D-minus-R net favorability -25 pp; official vote margin -17.44 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2010-10-07 (day precision).
• Historical comparison: OH-GOV-2010: D-minus-R net favorability -4 pp; official vote margin -2.00 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2010-10-07 (day precision).
• Historical comparison: OH-SEN-2024: D-minus-R net favorability +8 pp; official vote margin -3.62 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2024-10-10 (day precision).
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: registered voters
• Status: primary_verified

GOVERNOR-OH candidate favorability gap

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4 · Source 5 · Source 6

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-24

Interviews end

2026-09-27

Published

2026-09-29

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Question summary (paraphrase): In general, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the named candidate?
• Historical comparison: US-PRES-2000: D-minus-R net favorability -5 pp; official vote margin +0.52 pp (national presidential popular-vote context; Electoral College outcome is separate; not a coefficient). Poll published 2000-10-24 (day precision).
• Historical comparison: OH-SEN-2006: D-minus-R net favorability +4 pp; official vote margin +12.35 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2006-09-20 (day precision).
• Historical comparison: OH-SEN-2010: D-minus-R net favorability -25 pp; official vote margin -17.44 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2010-10-07 (day precision).
• Historical comparison: OH-GOV-2010: D-minus-R net favorability -4 pp; official vote margin -2.00 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2010-10-07 (day precision).
• Historical comparison: OH-SEN-2024: D-minus-R net favorability +8 pp; official vote margin -3.62 pp (same-state historical example; not a coefficient). Poll published 2024-10-10 (day precision).
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: registered voters
• Status: primary_verified

SENATE-TX candidate favorability gap

Source 1 · Source 2

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-17

Interviews end

2026-09-20

Published

2026-09-23

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: In general, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of {candidate}?
• Historical comparison: US-PRES-2000: D-minus-R net favorability -5 pp; official vote margin +0.52 pp (national presidential popular-vote context; Electoral College outcome is separate; not a coefficient). Poll published 2000-10-24 (day precision).
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: registered voters
• Status: primary_verified

GOVERNOR-TX candidate favorability gap

Source 1 · Source 2

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-17

Interviews end

2026-09-20

Published

2026-09-23

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: In general, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of {candidate}?
• Historical comparison: US-PRES-2000: D-minus-R net favorability -5 pp; official vote margin +0.52 pp (national presidential popular-vote context; Electoral College outcome is separate; not a coefficient). Poll published 2000-10-24 (day precision).
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: registered voters
• Status: primary_verified

GOVERNOR-WI candidate favorability gap

Source 1 · Source 2

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-16

Interviews end

2026-09-23

Published

2026-09-30

Retrieved

2026-10-08

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Question summary (paraphrase): Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the named person, or have you not heard enough?
• Historical comparison: US-PRES-2000: D-minus-R net favorability -5 pp; official vote margin +0.52 pp (national presidential popular-vote context; Electoral College outcome is separate; not a coefficient). Poll published 2000-10-24 (day precision).
• Voter screen: RV
• Population: registered voters
• Status: primary_verified

Trump approval: California naturalized likely voters

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4 · Source 5 · Source 6

Reference period

Not recorded

Interviews begin

2026-09-04

Interviews end

2026-09-10

Published

2026-09-15

Retrieved

2026-10-08T20:12:44.390229+00:00

• Effect status not recorded
• Measurement: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
• Historical comparison: 2016-09-18: Barack Obama, California naturalized likely voters, 53% approve; subgroup n=173
• Historical comparison: 2018-09-18: Donald Trump, California naturalized likely voters, 32% approve; subgroup n=132
• Historical comparison: 2020-09-13: Donald Trump, California naturalized likely voters, 31% approve; subgroup n=163
• Historical comparison: 2022-09-11: Joe Biden, California naturalized likely voters, 78% approve; subgroup n=99
• Historical comparison: 2024-09-09: Joe Biden, California naturalized likely voters, 51% approve; subgroup n=164
• Historical comparison: 2026-09-10: Donald Trump, California naturalized likely voters, 23% approve; subgroup n=193
• Voter screen: LV
• Population: California naturalized citizen likely voters
• Status: primary_verified

State and demographic presidential approval tracker

Source

Observed / reference

2026-10-06

• Not recorded
• Population: registered voters

ME presidential approval · Marist

Dated state approval comparison; diagnostic context

Source

Interviews begin

2026-10-01

Interviews end

2026-10-04

• Originating pollster: Marist
• Population: registered voters

KS presidential approval · Emerson/Nexstar

Dated state approval comparison; diagnostic context

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-15

Interviews end

2026-09-16

• Originating pollster: Emerson/Nexstar
• Population: likely voters

MI presidential approval · Emerson/Nexstar

Dated state approval comparison; diagnostic context

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-12

Interviews end

2026-09-14

• Originating pollster: Emerson/Nexstar
• Population: likely voters

TX presidential approval · Emerson/Nexstar

Dated state approval comparison; diagnostic context

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-12

Interviews end

2026-09-14

• Originating pollster: Emerson/Nexstar
• Population: likely voters

WI presidential approval · Marquette Law School Poll

Dated state approval comparison; diagnostic context

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-16

Interviews end

2026-09-23

• Originating pollster: Marquette Law School Poll
• Population: registered voters

NV presidential approval · Emerson College Polling / KLAS-TV

Dated state approval comparison; diagnostic context

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-05

Interviews end

2026-09-08

• Originating pollster: Emerson College Polling / KLAS-TV
• Population: likely voters

NY presidential approval · Marist

Dated state approval comparison; diagnostic context

Source

Interviews begin

2026-10-01

Interviews end

2026-10-04

• Originating pollster: Marist
• Population: registered voters

ME candidate favorability · Marist

Candidate favorability diagnostic

Source

Interviews begin

2026-10-01

Interviews end

2026-10-04

Published

2026-10-06

• Not recorded
• Originating pollster: Marist
• Population: registered voters

OH candidate favorability · Marist

Candidate favorability diagnostic

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-24

Interviews end

2026-09-27

Published

2026-09-29

• Not recorded
• Originating pollster: Marist
• Population: registered voters

TX candidate favorability · Marist

Candidate favorability diagnostic

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-17

Interviews end

2026-09-20

Published

2026-09-23

• Not recorded
• Originating pollster: Marist
• Population: registered voters

WI candidate favorability · Marquette Law School

Candidate favorability diagnostic

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-16

Interviews end

2026-09-23

Published

2026-09-30

• Not recorded
• Originating pollster: Marquette Law School
• Population: registered voters

Current issue-priority survey

Issue-priority diagnostic

Source

Interviews begin

2026-09-02

Interviews end

2026-09-09

Published

2026-09-16

• Provider: Marquette Law School Poll
• Population: U.S. adults

1976–2026: 50-year historical research

Historical research spans 1976–2026. Coverage and usable training periods vary by measurement; charts retain their actual observation dates. The saved conditions-model panel has 10,751 contests from 1976–2024, including odd-year elections. This research scope does not mean every input has 50 years of comparable data or that a 1976-trained correction passed live admission.

Prepared outcomes: 10751 contests · House 9351 · Senate 786 · Governor 614. Actual outcome years: 1976–2024. Research completed 2026-10-11T03:22:15.695210+00:00; this is separate from the forecast generation date.

Original research credits

• MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) · Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3
• Algara / Amlani historical election outcomes · Source
• Cha / Kuriwaki / Snyder retained candidate compilation · No public URL recorded
• TidyTuesday explicitly attributed MEDSL House mirror · Source
• American National Election Studies (ANES) / Berkeley SDA · Source 1 · Source 2
• Gallup historical approval and issue research · Source
• BLS / University of Michigan; FRED and ALFRED republication · Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3
• Federal Election Commission campaign-resource archive · Source
• FiveThirtyEight original archived polling and methodology · Source

Disentangling Bias and Variance in Election Polls

Methodological or official baseline reference; use is described explicitly.

Source

Dates not recorded for this reference.

• Authors: Houshmand Shirani-Mehr, David Rothschild, Sharad Goel and Andrew Gelman.
• Original polling-error research informs experiments; it does not validate 21CEE coefficients.

Stanford Policy Lab polling-errors replication archive

Methodological or official baseline reference; use is described explicitly.

Source

Dates not recorded for this reference.

• Author-compiled replication records; originating pollsters remain separate contributors.
• Repository credits FiveThirtyEight/Pollster for the main archive and Pollster/RealClearPolitics for auxiliary data.
• Research-only acquisition; no operational correction or public redistribution license is implied.

Pew Research Center: party affiliation, past vote and polling participation

Methodological or official baseline reference; use is described explicitly.

Source

Dates not recorded for this reference.

• Methodological context for interpreting changes in survey participation, not an automatic party adjustment.

AAPOR Task Force on 2024 Pre-Election Polling

Methodological or official baseline reference; use is described explicitly.

Source

Dates not recorded for this reference.

• Historical polling-error and nonresponse research; no universal partisan correction is inferred.

Federal Election Commission: official 2024 presidential general-election results

Methodological or official baseline reference; use is described explicitly.

Source

Dates not recorded for this reference.

• National presidential result is diagnostic context; district/national proxies are excluded from this raw-poll/publisher-direction policy.
• National-result credit does not establish missing per-district presidential baseline provenance.

First major poll closings

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3

Scheduled utc

2026-11-03T23:00:00Z

• 6 p.m. Eastern · parts of Indiana and Kentucky. First regular mass closing wave; excludes special New Hampshire midnight-voting towns. Western parts of Indiana and Kentucky remain open until 7 p.m. Eastern.

HOUSE-AZ-01

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-AZ-06

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-CA-13

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-CA-48

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-CO-05

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-CO-08

Polls / ballot drop boxes close

Source 1 · Source 2

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Colorado voter service centers and ballot drop boxes close at 7 p.m. Mountain, or 9 p.m. Eastern. Normal mail ballots must be received by the deadline; military/overseas rules can differ.

HOUSE-FL-14

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-FL-22

District polls close

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T00:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T00:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• 7 p.m. Eastern. The official 2026 District 22 map places this district in southern Florida's Eastern zone; Florida's later Central-zone closing is not substituted for this district.

HOUSE-IA-01

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-IA-02

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-IA-03

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-MI-04

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-MI-07

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-MI-10

District polls close

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• 8 p.m. Eastern. The official district map places MI-10 in southeastern Lower Michigan, outside the Central-zone Upper Peninsula. The state commission reports its congressional map remains in effect.

HOUSE-NC-01

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-NE-02

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-NJ-07

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-NM-02

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-NY-04

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-NY-17

District polls close

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Standard New York general-election closing is 9 p.m. Eastern throughout this district.

HOUSE-OH-07

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-PA-07

District polls close

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Standard Pennsylvania closing is 8 p.m. Eastern throughout this district.

HOUSE-PA-08

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

HOUSE-PA-10

District polls close

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Standard Pennsylvania closing is 8 p.m. Eastern throughout this district.

HOUSE-TX-15

District polls close

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• 7 p.m. Central, or 8 p.m. Eastern. Official 2026 Plan C2333 county allocations place Texas's Mountain-zone counties in other districts, so the later statewide closing is not applied here.

HOUSE-TX-34

District polls close

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• 7 p.m. Central, or 8 p.m. Eastern. Official 2026 Plan C2333 county allocations place Texas's Mountain-zone counties in other districts, so the later statewide closing is not applied here.

HOUSE-WA-03

Ballot drop-box deadline

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T04:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T04:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• 8 p.m. Pacific, or 11 p.m. Eastern, for the Election Day ballot drop-box deadline. Washington votes primarily by mail; mailed ballots follow the Election Day postmark rule. This is not a results-complete deadline.

HOUSE-WI-03

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

SENATE-AK

Final statewide poll closing

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T05:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T06:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• 8 p.m. local time: most Alaska closes at midnight Eastern on Nov. 4; western Aleutian locations close at 1 a.m. Eastern. The clock uses the latter, not the first results release. UTC conversion follows the two Alaska time zones. AP's 2026 election reporting independently corroborates the midnight / 1 a.m. Eastern split; the federal time-zone page is a legal reference.

SENATE-IA

Polls close

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Standard closing is 8 p.m. Central, or 9 p.m. Eastern.

SENATE-ME

Standard statewide poll closing

Source 1 · Source 2

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Standard closing is 8 p.m. Eastern. Maine statute permits municipalities with fewer than 100 residents to close after every registered voter has voted; those unscheduled exceptions are excluded from the first-close field.

SENATE-NC

Polls close

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T00:30:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T00:30:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Standard closing is 7:30 p.m. Eastern. An official emergency extension would require a sourced schedule update.

SENATE-OH

Polls close

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T00:30:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T00:30:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Standard closing is 7:30 p.m. Eastern, as documented in the 2026 Ohio election official manual.

SENATE-TX

Final statewide poll closing

Source 1 · Source 2

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• 7 p.m. local time: Central Texas closes at 8 p.m. Eastern; Mountain-time El Paso and Hudspeth close at 9 p.m. Eastern. The statewide clock uses the later closing.

SENATE-MI

Final statewide poll closing

Source 1 · Source 2

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• 8 p.m. local time: most Michigan closes at 8 p.m. Eastern; Central-zone Upper Peninsula counties close at 9 p.m. Eastern. The statewide Senate clock uses the later closing.

SENATE-MN

Polls close

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• State and federal election polls close at 8 p.m. Central, or 9 p.m. Eastern. Later openings in some small towns do not change this standard closing.

SENATE-KS

Standard statewide poll closing

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Kansas statute 25-106 synchronizes standard closings at 7 p.m. Central and 6 p.m. Mountain, both 8 p.m. Eastern. County officers may publicly announce different hours; this is the standard schedule, not an exhaustive county-notice audit.

SENATE-NH

Final regular statewide poll closing

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T00:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Regular municipal schedules vary, including 7 p.m., 7:30 p.m. and 8 p.m. Eastern. Current 2026 Dover and Windham notices verify the 7–8 p.m. range; the prior official state guide supplies the statewide 8 p.m. bound. Special midnight-voting towns are excluded from first_close_at; their actual closure is not a fixed timestamp. Recheck all municipal notices before election night.

SENATE-GA

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

SENATE-NE

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

GOVERNOR-AK

Final statewide poll closing

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T05:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T06:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• 8 p.m. local time: most Alaska closes at midnight Eastern on Nov. 4; western Aleutian locations close at 1 a.m. Eastern. The clock uses the latter, not the first results release. UTC conversion follows the two Alaska time zones. AP's 2026 election reporting independently corroborates the midnight / 1 a.m. Eastern split; the federal time-zone page is a legal reference.

GOVERNOR-AZ

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

GOVERNOR-GA

Polls close

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T00:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T00:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Standard closing is 7 p.m. Eastern. This is the November general-election schedule; a required runoff would have its own later election date.

GOVERNOR-IA

Polls close

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Standard closing is 8 p.m. Central, or 9 p.m. Eastern.

GOVERNOR-KS

Standard statewide poll closing

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T01:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Kansas statute 25-106 synchronizes standard closings at 7 p.m. Central and 6 p.m. Mountain, both 8 p.m. Eastern. County officers may publicly announce different hours; this is the standard schedule, not an exhaustive county-notice audit.

GOVERNOR-MI

Closing time verification pending

No public URL recorded

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

Not recorded

Schedule reviewed

Not recorded

• No verified closing deadline is retained for this exact race. No other district's schedule is substituted.

GOVERNOR-NV

Final statewide poll closing

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3

First regular closing utc

Not recorded

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T03:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Standard polls close at 7 p.m. local time: 10 p.m. Eastern in Pacific Nevada. Mountain-time West Wendover has historically closed earlier, but its 2026 municipal notice has not been verified here. The first-close field stays empty; the clock uses the verified standard final statewide closing.

GOVERNOR-OH

Polls close

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T00:30:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T00:30:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Standard closing is 7:30 p.m. Eastern, as documented in the 2026 Ohio election official manual.

GOVERNOR-OR

Final ballot drop-box deadline

Source 1 · Source 2 · Source 3 · Source 4

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T03:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T04:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• 8 p.m. local ballot-return deadline: Mountain-time locations reach it at 10 p.m. Eastern; Pacific locations at 11 p.m. Eastern. Oregon is predominantly vote by mail. Valid Election Day-postmarked ballots may arrive through Nov. 10; the clock does not mean counting is complete.

GOVERNOR-WI

Polls close

Source

First regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Final regular closing utc

2026-11-04T02:00:00Z

Schedule reviewed

2026-10-08

• Standard closing is 8 p.m. Central, or 9 p.m. Eastern. The official 2026 county notice confirms the hours.