Analysis
Where our forecast rests on less evidence
Not every race has the same amount of polling behind it. Georgia's and Nebraska's Senate races rest on a single poll each, Alaska on six, while Texas and Michigan have twelve.
Evidence as of
Not every race has the same amount of polling behind it. Georgia's and Nebraska's Senate races rest on a single poll each, Alaska on six, while Texas and Michigan have twelve. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Texas: 12 polls, latest Oct. 29; Michigan: 12 polls, latest Oct. 29; Iowa: 11 polls, latest Oct. 29; Maine: 11 polls, latest Oct. 29; Ohio: 11 polls, latest Oct. 30; North Carolina: 9 polls, latest Oct. 29; New Hampshire: 9 polls, latest Oct. 23; Minnesota: 7 polls, latest Oct. 28; Kansas: 7 polls, latest Oct. 29; Alaska: 6 polls, latest Oct. 29; Georgia: 1 polls, latest Oct. 9; Nebraska: 1 polls, latest Oct. 5
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Texas | 12 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Michigan | 12 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Iowa | 11 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Maine | 11 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Ohio | 11 polls, latest Oct. 30 |
| North Carolina | 9 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| New Hampshire | 9 polls, latest Oct. 23 |
| Minnesota | 7 polls, latest Oct. 28 |
| Kansas | 7 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Alaska | 6 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Georgia | 1 polls, latest Oct. 9 |
| Nebraska | 1 polls, latest Oct. 5 |
Fewer polls means more room for a miss, so we show the count next to each margin. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
These are projections, not counted votes. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.