Analysis
Texas Senate: Talarico projected 1.90 points ahead of Paxton
Democrat James Talarico is projected to lead Republican Ken Paxton by 1.90 points, and Inside Elections rates the race Tilt Democratic. It is a seat Republicans hold.
Evidence as of
Democrat James Talarico is projected to lead Republican Ken Paxton by 1.90 points, and Inside Elections rates the race Tilt Democratic. It is a seat Republicans hold. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
The projection uses 12 selected polls, the latest ending October 29, with seven original verified releases and five from retained provider listings. Pollsters in the set include CBS News/YouGov, Emerson College, Fox News/Beacon/Shaw, Marist, CNN and the University of Texas/Texas Politics Project. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
A 1.90-point margin is an estimate; a result a few points either way would not be a surprise. We do not publish a win probability. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.