Analysis
Seven House seats the corrected polls move to Democrats
When we re-ran the final forecast with the district polls we had missed, seven House seats moved to Democrats. Each rests on one poll.
Evidence as of
When we re-ran our final forecast with the district polls we had missed, seven House seats moved from Republican to Democratic. None of them is a blowout. The margins run from 2 to 6 points, and each seat rests on a single district poll. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
AZ-02 Democratic +2 (Poll Vault/Emerson, October 14); ME-02 Democratic +6 (University of New Hampshire, September 24); MN-01 Democratic +2 (KAAL-TV/SurveyUSA, October 9); MO-02 Democratic +5 (Poll Vault/Emerson, October 14); MT-01 Democratic +4 (Poll Vault/Emerson, October 14); PA-01 Democratic +2 (New York Times/Siena College, October 22); VA-01 Democratic +4 (Washington Post, September 29).
| District | Projected margin | The one poll | Inside Elections rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| AZ-02 | Democratic +2 | Poll Vault/Emerson, October 14 (sample of 345) | Lean Republican |
| ME-02 | Democratic +6 | University of New Hampshire, September 24 (sample of 627) | Lean Republican |
| MN-01 | Democratic +2 | KAAL-TV/SurveyUSA, October 9 (sample of 565) | Lean Republican |
| MO-02 | Democratic +5 | Poll Vault/Emerson, October 14 (sample of 401) | Solid Republican |
| MT-01 | Democratic +4 | Poll Vault/Emerson, October 14 (sample of 329) | Toss Up |
| PA-01 | Democratic +2 | New York Times/Siena College, October 22 (sample of 400) | Toss Up |
| VA-01 | Democratic +4 | Washington Post, September 29 (sample of 600) | Tilt Republican |
Three of the seven (AZ-02, MO-02 and MT-01) rest on the same Poll Vault/Emerson series from October 14. A poll that misses by its margin of error can send a seat back. If all seven went back, the House would be 229–206 instead of 236–199. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Why the polls were missed: starting October 29, our feed stopped picking up individual district polls on RealClearPolling, about three dozen polls in 29 districts. The Inside Elections ratings refresh also failed that day. Both are fixed, and the model now refuses to run on inputs more than six hours old unless a named person approves an exception in writing. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.