Analysis
Seven Senate races before the night begins
Three of the seven races we are watching are close.
Evidence as of
Three of the seven races we are watching are close. Iowa is the closest Senate race in our final projection, with the Democrat ahead by 0.16 points. Kansas tilts Democratic by 2.29, and Nebraska tilts Republican by 3.00 in a race that pairs a Republican with an independent. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Iowa Senate: D+0.16; Kansas Senate: D+2.29; Nebraska Senate: R+3.00; Florida Senate: Projected GOP hold; Louisiana Senate: Projected GOP hold; Mississippi Senate: Projected GOP hold; South Carolina Senate: Projected GOP hold
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Iowa Senate | D+0.16 |
| Kansas Senate | D+2.29 |
| Nebraska Senate | R+3.00 |
| Florida Senate | Projected GOP hold |
| Louisiana Senate | Projected GOP hold |
| Mississippi Senate | Projected GOP hold |
| South Carolina Senate | Projected GOP hold |
Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and South Carolina are projected Republican holds. Our projection gives no point margin for those four seats, so we are not putting a number on them. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
These are projections from selected polls and the 21CEE model, not counted votes. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.