Analysis
Maine Senate: Troy Jackson projected ahead of Susan Collins by 1.66 points
Maine is a seat Republicans hold, and the final forecast has it flipping. Democrat Troy Jackson is projected to beat Republican Susan Collins by 1.66 points, and Inside Elections rates the race a Toss Up.
Evidence as of
Maine is a seat Republicans hold, and the final forecast has it flipping. Democrat Troy Jackson is projected to beat Republican Susan Collins by 1.66 points, and Inside Elections rates the race a Toss Up. Read 1.66 as an estimate with real room around it. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
The projection uses 11 selected polls, the latest ending October 29. Four are original verified releases and seven come from retained provider listings. The most recent surveys in our data are from YouGov (ending Oct 29), CNN (Oct 26) and Marist (Oct 25). Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
We do not publish a win probability, and this margin does not describe any individual voter's choice or how undecided voters will break. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.