Maine Senate: a tied poll and a narrow projected edge

Maine U.S. Senate: Democratic candidate Troy Jackson and Republican Sen. Susan Collins were tied at 49% in Fox News’s October 16–20 poll. The survey’s likely-voter group includes 1,514 respondents, and Fox reports a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points for that group. Its ballot question includes leaners and people reporting how they had already voted. Sources: Fox News Maine poll, October 16–20, 2026, released October 22

21CEE’s October 28 point projection favors Jackson by 1.43 percentage points. The poll and projection are separate measures, so that difference is not evidence that voters moved toward either candidate. The model’s selected source set includes 17 polling records, four with original numeric verification and13 retained provider or unverified records; source coverage and original dates remain linked on the race page. Data: Fox News, Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research. Analysis: 21CEE. Sources: 21CEE issued morning Daily Report, October 28, 2026, Fox News Maine poll, October 16–20, 2026, released October 22

Source coverage: four of the model’s 17 selected records have original numeric verification; 13 are provider-supplied or unverified numeric records. The source set is not the Fox sample. The linked race page and issued report retain the source dates, coverage and uncertainty. Sources: 21CEE issued morning Daily Report, October 28, 2026

Explore the data: Maine Senate race and original sources

Explore the data: Exact October 28 issued report