Analysis
Key races when polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern
Polls close at 8 p.m.
Evidence as of
Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern in Maine, Michigan, Mississippi, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Texas and most of Kansas. The Senate races in Maine, Texas, Michigan and Kansas all tilt Democratic by under four points, and Kansas also has a governor's race that leans Republican. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Maine Senate: D+1.66; 11 polls, latest Oct. 29; Texas Senate: D+1.90; 12 polls, latest Oct. 29; Michigan Senate: D+3.81; 12 polls, latest Oct. 29; Kansas Senate: D+2.29; 7 polls, latest Oct. 29; Kansas governor: R+3.42; 8 polls, latest Oct. 29; Michigan governor: D+8.66; 12 polls, latest Oct. 29; PA-10 House: Even; 2 polls, latest Oct. 22; MI-04 House: D+1.00; 1 poll, latest Sept. 16
| Item | Value |
|---|---|
| Maine Senate | D+1.66; 11 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Texas Senate | D+1.90; 12 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Michigan Senate | D+3.81; 12 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Kansas Senate | D+2.29; 7 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Kansas governor | R+3.42; 8 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| Michigan governor | D+8.66; 12 polls, latest Oct. 29 |
| PA-10 House | Even; 2 polls, latest Oct. 22 |
| MI-04 House | D+1.00; 1 poll, latest Sept. 16 |
Parts of Texas, Michigan and Kansas close an hour later, at 9 p.m. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
These are projections, not counted votes. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.