Analysis
How to read the 21CEE forecast on Election Day
A margin like D+2 means the Democrat is projected ahead by 2 points, and R+2 means the Republican is. Margins are Democratic minus Republican, in percentage points.
Evidence as of
A margin like D+2 means the Democrat is projected ahead by 2 points, and R+2 means the Republican is. Margins are Democratic minus Republican, in percentage points. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
A projection is not a vote count. A result a few points either way would not surprise us, which is why thin leads can flip, and we do not publish a win probability. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Some races rest on a handful of polls and a few on none. Each graphic we post today shows how many polls sit behind a number. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.