Final forecast, corrected: Democrats at 236 House seats, Republicans at 199

Our corrected final forecast of the 2026 midterms has Democrats winning 236 House seats and Republicans 199. All 435 seats have a projected winner. The Senate is unchanged at 52 Democratic-aligned seats, 46 Republican and 2 independents who caucus with Democrats, and governors are unchanged at 27 Democratic and 23 Republican. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026

This replaces the House number we published earlier on November 1: 229 Democratic seats and 206 Republican. Starting October 29, two House inputs stopped updating without our noticing. The Inside Elections ratings refresh failed, and individual district polls on RealClearPolling were not reaching the model. With both fixed, seven districts move from Republican to Democratic in our forecast: AZ-02, ME-02, MN-01, MO-02, MT-01, PA-01 and VA-01. The projected margins in those seats are small, between 2 and 6 points, so this is a forecast of a lean, not a certainty. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026

The House is closer than 236–199 suggests. Of the 64 House races with a polling-based margin, 25 are projected within 2 points. Two of them, OH-09 and PA-10, are projected at exactly zero; our rules give an exact tie to the publisher-rated favorite and claim no polling lead. Each of the seven changed seats rests on a single district poll, so one new poll could change any of them back. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026

The closest projected Senate races are Iowa (Democrat +0.2), Alaska (Democrat +0.9), Maine (Democrat +1.7), Texas (Democrat +1.9), Kansas (Democrat +2.3) and Ohio (Democrat +2.5). The full list of races, margins and sources is in the corrected final release. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026

Corrected final forecast, all races