Analysis
Alaska Senate: Mary Peltola projected 0.90 points ahead, on six polls
Alaska's Senate race is the second-closest in the final forecast. Democrat Mary Peltola is projected to lead Republican Dan Sullivan by 0.90 points. Inside Elections rates it a Toss Up, and the seat is held by Republicans.
Evidence as of
Alaska's Senate race is the second-closest in the final forecast. Democrat Mary Peltola is projected to lead Republican Dan Sullivan by 0.90 points. Inside Elections rates it a Toss Up, and the seat is held by Republicans. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
The projection rests on six selected polls, the latest from Alaska Survey Research with interviews ending October 29, and only one of the six is an original verified release in our data. The others are Quantus Insights, InsiderAdvantage, PPP, Rasmussen Reports and Data for Progress, dated September 30 to October 16. With so few verified polls, we treat a sub-one-point margin as a toss-up with a slight lean, not a call. Sources: 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026
Sources & data
- 21CEE corrected final forecast, November 1, 2026 · 21CEE · 21CEE ·
21CEE release
20261102T013933232184Z-6c60a152e3df· Snapshot SHA-2566c60a152e3dfcb78a22df534600a96463641303c38a1e3471324f1ca9582b2f9
Credits
Analysis: 21CEE editorial analysis (organization).
Corrections & updates
No corrections recorded.