Hagerty holds Tennessee with a double-digit reported margin
NBC projects Bill Hagerty. The November 5 evening count shows a 251,483-vote lead, with 99% estimated vote in.
What the count shows
Bill Hagerty (R, TN Senate); Marquita Bradshaw (D, TN Senate). NBC News projects Bill Hagerty as the winner. In the snapshot checked November 5 at 8:48 p.m. Eastern, Hagerty had 1,138,457 votes to 886,974 for Marquita Bradshaw. The reported lead was 251,483 votes, or 12.17 percentage points across all candidates.
NBC estimated 99% of the vote was in. A projection means the network expects a winner; it does not certify a completed count. The reported margin can still move as remaining ballots are added.
| Candidate | Source party label | Votes | Share of all votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bill Hagerty | Rep | 1,138,457 | 55.0807% |
| Marquita Bradshaw | Dem | 886,974 | 42.9135% |
| Robert Jones | Ind | 9,398 | 0.4547% |
| Tharon Chandler | Ind | 7,689 | 0.3720% |
| Andrew Gerena | Ind | 5,633 | 0.2725% |
| Catherine Whitson | Ind | 5,113 | 0.2474% |
| Jeremy Hearn | Ind | 4,937 | 0.2389% |
| David Sutman | Ind | 3,087 | 0.1494% |
| Yoshi Matthews | Ind | 3,026 | 0.1464% |
| James Macon | Ind | 2,576 | 0.1246% |
| Total | 2,066,890 | 100% |
| Measure | Margin in percentage points |
|---|---|
| All reported candidates | 12.167217 |
| Leading two candidates only | 12.416271 |
What makes this comparison useful
Eight independent candidates appear alongside Hagerty and Bradshaw in the reported count. Their votes are included in the main percentage margin. Removing them produces a slightly larger two-candidate lead, but no new polling evidence. This is a call-and-count update, not a claimed poll-error score.
Keep every candidate in the count
The accessible table includes every candidate reported in the NBC record. The margin subtracts the runner-up’s votes from the leader’s votes and divides by the sum of all reported candidate votes. No votes are silently assigned to a major party.
The denominator check
Using all 2,066,890 reported candidate votes produces the 12.17-point lead. Restricting the denominator to Bill Hagerty and Marquita Bradshaw produces 12.42 points. Both calculations are shown so readers can see the effect rather than confuse the two measures.
The main result in this article keeps all reported votes. The alternate calculation is explanatory, not a replacement for the complete field.
Where the evidence stops
NBC estimated 99% of the vote in. This is a dated reported-count snapshot, not a certified final result. The national senate payload was updated Fri, 06 Nov 2026 01:48:30 GMT. That is the source update clock, not the original race-call time or a timestamp for an individual ballot batch.
This article keeps the reported result separate from 21CEE’s locked pre-election forecast. No verified original poll is used here, so no polling-error score is claimed.
Sources and calculations
Reporting: the linked original publishers. Calculations and graphics: 21CEE. Reported margins use the exact candidate counts in the accessible table. The source clocks above describe the retained snapshot. No certification or original call time is inferred.