Ayotte wins New Hampshire with a smaller lead than the selected poll
Saint Anselm College Survey Center put Ayotte 8 points ahead. NBC’s November 5 evening snapshot has a 4.24-point lead, with 98% estimated vote in.
What the count shows
Kelly Ayotte (R, NH governor); Cinde Warmington (D, NH governor). NBC News projects Kelly Ayotte as the winner. In the snapshot checked November 5 at 8:48 p.m. Eastern, Ayotte had 323,204 votes to 296,529 for Cinde Warmington. The reported lead was 26,675 votes, or 4.24 percentage points across all candidates.
The selected Saint Anselm College Survey Center poll had a 8-point Ayotte lead. The reported margin is 3.76 points smaller than that published poll margin. The projected winner matches the poll’s leading candidate; the size of the lead is a separate test.
| Candidate | Source party label | Votes | Share of all votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kelly Ayotte | Rep | 323,204 | 51.3605% |
| Cinde Warmington | Dem | 296,529 | 47.1216% |
| Stephen Villee | Lib | 9,552 | 1.5179% |
| Total | 629,285 | 100% |
| Measure | Margin in percentage points |
|---|---|
| Selected original poll | 8 |
| All reported candidates | 4.238938 |
| Leading two candidates only | 4.304273 |
What makes this comparison useful
Saint Anselm’s method page identifies likely voters even though its cover uses broader registered-voter language. This comparison preserves the method-page population. The selected October poll had Ayotte at 50% and Warmington at 42%; the reported count gives her a narrower lead.
Keep the original poll intact
Saint Anselm surveyed 1,672 New Hampshire likely voters October 19–20, using online responses from cell-phone users drawn from registered-voter records. It reports a ±2.4-point overall sampling margin of error and weighting for party registration, age, gender, geography and education.
The selected survey’s original ballot and methods are reproduced below. It is one published poll, not a polling average or a claim that no later poll existed. Undecided responses, minor candidates, the voter screen and the field dates remain part of the record.
The survey’s stated uncertainty applies to its estimates under its method. It is not an automatic pass-or-fail cutoff for a difference between two candidates, and it cannot turn a provisional count into a final polling-error score.
| Candidate / response | Published share |
|---|---|
| Kelly Ayotte | 50% |
| Cinde Warmington | 42% |
| Other | 3% |
| Unsure | 5% |
The denominator check
Using all 629,285 reported candidate votes produces the 4.24-point lead. Restricting the denominator to Kelly Ayotte and Cinde Warmington produces 4.30 points. Both calculations are shown so readers can see the effect rather than confuse the two measures.
For a fully two-candidate poll comparison, the published poll shares must also be renormalized. It would be misleading to change only the result denominator and describe that as a like-for-like final error.
Where the evidence stops
NBC estimated 98% of the vote in. This is a dated reported-count snapshot, not a certified final result. The national governor payload was updated Fri, 06 Nov 2026 01:46:11 GMT. That is the source update clock, not the original race-call time or a timestamp for an individual ballot batch.
A final polling audit should repeat the same calculations after the outcome is stable, preserving the original pre-election poll. This article does not change 21CEE’s locked forecast or claim that a polling gap proves which voters switched parties or stayed home.
Sources and calculations
Reporting: the linked original publishers. Calculations and graphics: 21CEE. Poll shares are kept as published; result margins use the exact candidate counts in the accessible table. The source clocks above describe the retained snapshot. No certification or original call time is inferred.