Minnesota: SurveyUSA came close to Klobuchar’s reported margin

What the count shows

Amy Klobuchar (DFL, MN governor); Lisa Demuth (R, MN governor). NBC News projects Amy Klobuchar as the winner. In the snapshot checked November 5 at 8:48 p.m. Eastern, Klobuchar had 1,569,698 votes to 1,206,583 for Lisa Demuth. The reported lead was 363,115 votes, or 12.83 percentage points across all candidates.

The selected SurveyUSA poll had a 12-point Klobuchar lead. The reported margin is 0.83 points larger than that published poll margin. The projected winner matches the poll’s leading candidate; the size of the lead is a separate test.

What makes this comparison useful

SurveyUSA’s headline ballot used 714 respondents who were likely to vote or had already voted, not its full 900-adult interview pool. Its expanded less-likely-voter scenario also showed a 12-point Klobuchar lead. The two scenarios are not separate polls. Published response percentages add to 101 because of rounding.

Keep the original poll intact

SurveyUSA interviewed October 24–28 using a weighted nonprobability internet panel. Of 900 adults, 807 were registered voters and 714 were likely to vote or had already voted. The headline ballot uses those 714 respondents. The stated credibility interval is ±4.2 points.

The selected survey’s original ballot and methods are reproduced below. It is one published poll, not a polling average or a claim that no later poll existed. Undecided responses, minor candidates, the voter screen and the field dates remain part of the record.

The survey’s stated uncertainty applies to its estimates under its method. It is not an automatic pass-or-fail cutoff for a difference between two candidates, and it cannot turn a provisional count into a final polling-error score.

The denominator check

Using all 2,830,159 reported candidate votes produces the 12.83-point lead. Restricting the denominator to Amy Klobuchar and Lisa Demuth produces 13.08 points. Both calculations are shown so readers can see the effect rather than confuse the two measures.

For a fully two-candidate poll comparison, the published poll shares must also be renormalized. It would be misleading to change only the result denominator and describe that as a like-for-like final error.

Where the evidence stops

NBC estimated 98.8% of the vote in. This is a dated reported-count snapshot, not a certified final result. The national governor payload was updated Fri, 06 Nov 2026 01:46:11 GMT. That is the source update clock, not the original race-call time or a timestamp for an individual ballot batch.

A final polling audit should repeat the same calculations after the outcome is stable, preserving the original pre-election poll. This article does not change 21CEE’s locked forecast or claim that a polling gap proves which voters switched parties or stayed home.

Sources and calculations

Reporting: the linked original publishers. Calculations and graphics: 21CEE. Poll shares are kept as published; result margins use the exact candidate counts in the accessible table. The source clocks above describe the retained snapshot. No certification or original call time is inferred.

• SurveyUSA / KSTP: Selected original pre-election poll: SurveyUSA Minnesota
• NBC News: NBC News governor results snapshot, checked November 5 evening