Donalds holds Florida with a much narrower reported lead
Research Co. put Donalds 4 points ahead. NBC’s November 5 evening snapshot has a 1.30-point lead, with 99% estimated vote in.
What the count shows
Byron Donalds (R, FL governor); David Jolly (D, FL governor). NBC News projects Byron Donalds as the winner. In the snapshot checked November 5 at 8:48 p.m. Eastern, Donalds had 4,132,616 votes to 4,024,956 for David Jolly. The reported lead was 107,660 votes, or 1.30 percentage points across all candidates.
The selected Research Co. poll had a 4-point Donalds lead. The reported margin is 2.70 points smaller than that published poll margin. The projected winner matches the poll’s leading candidate; the size of the lead is a separate test.
| Candidate | Source party label | Votes | Share of all votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Byron Donalds | Rep | 4,132,616 | 50.0174% |
| David Jolly | Dem | 4,024,956 | 48.7144% |
| Scott Jewett | Lib | 37,892 | 0.4586% |
| Frank Russo | NPA | 23,204 | 0.2808% |
| Charles Burkett | NPA | 15,239 | 0.1844% |
| Dean Abrams | NPA | 12,537 | 0.1517% |
| Jeffrey Datto | NPA | 8,314 | 0.1006% |
| Moliere Dimanche | NPA | 7,592 | 0.0919% |
| Total | 8,262,350 | 100% |
| Measure | Margin in percentage points |
|---|---|
| Selected original poll | 4 |
| All reported candidates | 1.303019 |
| Leading two candidates only | 1.319755 |
What makes this comparison useful
Research Co. asked about the Senate and governor races in the same Florida sample. Both questions pointed to Republican winners and both had larger Republican leads than these reported counts. That is a useful within-survey pattern, not two independent confirmations about Florida polling.
Keep the original poll intact
Research Co. surveyed 450 likely voters in Florida online, October 31–November 2. The governor ballot is shown among decided voters. Its reported interval is ±4.6 points for the state sample, with age and gender weighting. This is the same respondent sample as its Senate question.
The selected survey’s original ballot and methods are reproduced below. It is one published poll, not a polling average or a claim that no later poll existed. Undecided responses, minor candidates, the voter screen and the field dates remain part of the record.
The survey’s stated uncertainty applies to its estimates under its method. It is not an automatic pass-or-fail cutoff for a difference between two candidates, and it cannot turn a provisional count into a final polling-error score.
| Candidate or response | Published percent |
|---|---|
| Byron Donalds | 51 |
| David Jolly | 47 |
| Other | 2 |
The denominator check
Using all 8,262,350 reported candidate votes produces the 1.30-point lead. Restricting the denominator to Byron Donalds and David Jolly produces 1.32 points. Both calculations are shown so readers can see the effect rather than confuse the two measures.
For a fully two-candidate poll comparison, the published poll shares must also be renormalized. It would be misleading to change only the result denominator and describe that as a like-for-like final error.
Where the evidence stops
NBC estimated 99% of the vote in. This is a dated reported-count snapshot, not a certified final result. The national governor payload was updated Fri, 06 Nov 2026 01:46:11 GMT. That is the source update clock, not the original race-call time or a timestamp for an individual ballot batch.
A final polling audit should repeat the same calculations after the outcome is stable, preserving the original pre-election poll. This article does not change 21CEE’s locked forecast or claim that a polling gap proves which voters switched parties or stayed home.
Sources and calculations
Reporting: the linked original publishers. Calculations and graphics: 21CEE. Poll shares are kept as published; result margins use the exact candidate counts in the accessible table. The source clocks above describe the retained snapshot. No certification or original call time is inferred.