Colorado’s count now puts Weiser more than 27 points ahead
Research Co. put Weiser 16 points ahead. NBC’s November 5 evening snapshot has a 27.13-point lead, with 95% estimated vote in.
What the count shows
Phil Weiser (D, CO governor); Victor Marx (R, CO governor). NBC News projects Phil Weiser as the winner. In the snapshot checked November 5 at 8:48 p.m. Eastern, Weiser had 1,558,328 votes to 862,353 for Victor Marx. The reported lead was 695,975 votes, or 27.13 percentage points across all candidates.
The selected Research Co. poll had a 16-point Weiser lead. The reported margin is 11.13 points larger than that published poll margin. The projected winner matches the poll’s leading candidate; the size of the lead is a separate test.
| Candidate | Source party label | Votes | Share of all votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Weiser | Dem | 1,558,328 | 60.7487% |
| Victor Marx | Rep | 862,353 | 33.6173% |
| Greg Lopez | Una | 71,517 | 2.7880% |
| Eric Mulder | Lib | 42,230 | 1.6463% |
| Stephen Hamilton | AmC | 16,532 | 0.6445% |
| Erik Underwood | AVP | 8,737 | 0.3406% |
| Jeff Peckman | Uty | 5,507 | 0.2147% |
| Total | 2,565,204 | 100% |
| Measure | Margin in percentage points |
|---|---|
| Selected original poll | 16 |
| All reported candidates | 27.131370 |
| Leading two candidates only | 28.751207 |
What makes this comparison useful
Colorado has added a substantial share of its estimated vote since our prior snapshot: NBC’s estimate has moved from 82.3% to 95%. Weiser’s all-candidate margin is now 27.13 points, compared with 26.87 in the earlier count. The change is modest relative to the gap from Research Co.’s 16-point poll lead.
Keep the original poll intact
Research Co. interviewed 450 likely voters in Colorado online, October 31–November 2. The ballot is among decided voters, with age and gender weighting. The publisher reports ±4.6 percentage points for the state sample; the decided-voter base is not separately supplied.
The selected survey’s original ballot and methods are reproduced below. It is one published poll, not a polling average or a claim that no later poll existed. Undecided responses, minor candidates, the voter screen and the field dates remain part of the record.
The survey’s stated uncertainty applies to its estimates under its method. It is not an automatic pass-or-fail cutoff for a difference between two candidates, and it cannot turn a provisional count into a final polling-error score.
| Candidate / response | Published share |
|---|---|
| Phil Weiser | 57% |
| Victor Marx | 41% |
| Other | 2% |
The denominator check
Using all 2,565,204 reported candidate votes produces the 27.13-point lead. Restricting the denominator to Phil Weiser and Victor Marx produces 28.75 points. Both calculations are shown so readers can see the effect rather than confuse the two measures.
For a fully two-candidate poll comparison, the published poll shares must also be renormalized. It would be misleading to change only the result denominator and describe that as a like-for-like final error.
Where the evidence stops
NBC estimated 95% of the vote in. This is a dated reported-count snapshot, not a certified final result. The national governor payload was updated Fri, 06 Nov 2026 01:46:11 GMT. That is the source update clock, not the original race-call time or a timestamp for an individual ballot batch.
A final polling audit should repeat the same calculations after the outcome is stable, preserving the original pre-election poll. This article does not change 21CEE’s locked forecast or claim that a polling gap proves which voters switched parties or stayed home.
Sources and calculations
Reporting: the linked original publishers. Calculations and graphics: 21CEE. Poll shares are kept as published; result margins use the exact candidate counts in the accessible table. The source clocks above describe the retained snapshot. No certification or original call time is inferred.